Polymarket · Football
Insubstantial-Notion is a Champions League pro on Polymarket: 41 picks, 65.8% win rate, $566 profit. Real on-chain positions, updated daily.
Of the 41 most recent predictions listed below ( to ), 41 have settled: 27 won, 14 lost, 65.9% accuracy.
| League | Records | Settled | Won | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UEFA Champions League | 26 | 26 | 16 | 61.5% |
| Fifa Friendly | 10 | 10 | 7 | 70.0% |
| UEFA Conference League | 5 | 5 | 4 | 80.0% |
Insubstantial-Notion mainly predicts Champions League: 26 of the last 41 recorded predictions. Platform: Polymarket.
Across the settled orders we have collected: 65.8% hit rate over 41 orders, P&L $566, ROI 30.9%. In Champions League, 16 of 26 recent settled predictions were correct.
Hit rate = correct settled predictions ÷ settled predictions; pending ones are not counted. P&L and ROI use the cost and settlement of each public position. Past results do not predict future ones.
Source: public positions on Polymarket. Data as of 2026-04-09 02:11 UTC+8. Method: methodology
| Date | Match | Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | FC Barcelona 0–2 Atlético Madrid (Club Atlético de Madrid) UEFA Champions League | FC Barcelona -1.5 spread | Won |
| 2026-04-09 | FC Barcelona 0–2 Atlético Madrid (Club Atlético de Madrid) UEFA Champions League | both teams to score | Lost |
| 2026-04-09 | FC Barcelona 0–2 Atlético Madrid (Club Atlético de Madrid) UEFA Champions League | draw | Lost |
| 2026-04-09 | Paris Saint-Germain FC 2–0 Liverpool F.C. (Liverpool FC) UEFA Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain FC -1.5 spread | Won |
| 2026-04-09 | Paris Saint-Germain FC 2–0 Liverpool F.C. (Liverpool FC) UEFA Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain FC to win | Won |
| 2026-04-08 | Sporting CP 0–1 Arsenal F.C. (Arsenal FC) UEFA Champions League | Sporting CP vs Arsenal FC O/U 2.5 | Won |
| 2026-04-08 | Real Madrid 1–2 FC Bayern Munich (FC Bayern München) UEFA Champions League | Real Madrid CF to win | Lost |
| 2026-04-01 | Egypt men's national football team (Egypt) 0–0 Spain men's national football team (Spain) Fifa Friendly | Egypt vs Spain O/U 3.5 | Lost |
| 2026-04-01 | Wales men's national association football team (Wales) 1–1 Northern Ireland men's national association football team (Northern Ireland) Fifa Friendly | Wales vs Northern Ireland O/U 2.5 | Won |
| 2026-04-01 | Sweden men's national football team (Sweden) 3–2 Poland men's national football team (Poland) UEFA Conference League | both teams to score | Won |
| 2026-04-01 | Sweden men's national football team (Sweden) 3–2 Poland men's national football team (Poland) UEFA Conference League | Sweden to win | Won |
| 2026-04-01 | Morocco men's national football team (Morocco) 2–1 Paraguay men's national football team (Paraguay) Fifa Friendly | Morocco vs Paraguay O/U 2.5 | Lost |
| 2026-03-28 | Morocco men's national football team (Morocco) 1–1 Ecuador men's national football team (Ecuador) Fifa Friendly | Morocco vs Ecuador O/U 2.5 | Won |
| 2026-03-28 | Netherlands 2–1 Norway men's national association football team (Norway) Fifa Friendly | both teams to score | Won |
| 2026-03-28 | England men's national association football team (England) 1–1 Uruguay men's national football team (Uruguay) Fifa Friendly | England to win | Lost |
| 2026-03-28 | Switzerland men's national football team (Switzerland) 3–4 Germany Fifa Friendly | both teams to score | Won |
| 2026-03-27 | Brazil men's national football team (Brazil) 1–2 France Fifa Friendly | both teams to score | Won |
| 2026-03-27 | Brazil men's national football team (Brazil) 1–2 France Fifa Friendly | France to win | Won |
| 2026-03-27 | Brazil men's national football team (Brazil) 1–2 France Fifa Friendly | Brazil vs France O/U 2.5 | Won |
| 2026-03-27 | Wales men's national association football team (Wales) 1–1 Bosnia and Herzegovina men's national football team (Bosnia and Herzegovina) UEFA Conference League | Wales vs Bosnia and Herzegovina O/U 2.5 | Won |
| 2026-03-27 | Slovakia men's national football team (Slovakia) 3–4 Kosovo men's national association football team (Kosovo) UEFA Conference League | Slovakia vs Kosovo O/U 2.5 | Lost |
| 2026-03-27 | Ukraine men's national football team (Ukraine) 1–3 Sweden men's national football team (Sweden) UEFA Conference League | Sweden to win | Won |
| 2026-03-19 | Liverpool F.C. (Liverpool FC) 4–0 Galatasaray SK UEFA Champions League | Liverpool FC vs Galatasaray SK O/U 3.5 | Lost |
| 2026-03-19 | FC Bayern Munich (FC Bayern München) 4–1 Atalanta BC UEFA Champions League | FC Bayern München vs Atalanta BC O/U 3.5 | Won |
| 2026-03-19 | Tottenham Hotspur F.C. (Tottenham Hotspur FC) 3–2 Atlético Madrid (Club Atlético de Madrid) UEFA Champions League | Club Atlético de Madrid to win | Lost |
| 2026-03-19 | FC Barcelona 7–2 Newcastle United F.C. (Newcastle United FC) UEFA Champions League | FC Barcelona to win | Won |
| 2026-03-18 | Chelsea F.C. (Chelsea FC) 0–3 Paris Saint-Germain FC UEFA Champions League | Chelsea FC to win | Lost |
| 2026-03-18 | Manchester City F.C. (Manchester City FC) 1–2 Real Madrid UEFA Champions League | both teams to score | Won |
| 2026-03-18 | Manchester City F.C. (Manchester City FC) 1–2 Real Madrid UEFA Champions League | Real Madrid CF to win | Won |
| 2026-03-18 | Manchester City F.C. (Manchester City FC) 1–2 Real Madrid UEFA Champions League | Manchester City FC -1.5 spread | Won |
| 2026-03-18 | Sporting CP 5–0 FK Bodø/Glimt UEFA Champions League | Sporting CP -1.5 spread | Lost |
| 2026-03-12 | Real Madrid 3–0 Manchester City F.C. (Manchester City FC) UEFA Champions League | both teams to score | Lost |
| 2026-03-12 | Paris Saint-Germain FC 5–2 Chelsea F.C. (Chelsea FC) UEFA Champions League | both teams to score | Won |
| 2026-03-12 | FK Bodø/Glimt 3–0 Sporting CP UEFA Champions League | FK Bodø/Glimt to win | Won |
| 2026-03-11 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1–1 Arsenal F.C. (Arsenal FC) UEFA Champions League | Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Arsenal FC O/U 2.5 | Won |
| 2026-03-11 | Real Madrid 3–0 Manchester City F.C. (Manchester City FC) UEFA Champions League | Real Madrid CF to win | Won |
| 2026-03-11 | Atlético Madrid (Club Atlético de Madrid) 5–2 Tottenham Hotspur F.C. (Tottenham Hotspur FC) UEFA Champions League | Club Atlético de Madrid vs Tottenham Hotspur FC O/U 2.5 | Won |
| 2026-03-11 | Atalanta BC 1–6 FC Bayern Munich (FC Bayern München) UEFA Champions League | FC Bayern München to win | Won |
| 2026-03-11 | Atlético Madrid (Club Atlético de Madrid) 5–2 Tottenham Hotspur F.C. (Tottenham Hotspur FC) UEFA Champions League | Club Atlético de Madrid to win | Won |
| 2026-03-11 | Galatasaray SK 1–0 Liverpool F.C. (Liverpool FC) UEFA Champions League | both teams to score | Lost |
| 2026-03-10 | Newcastle United F.C. (Newcastle United FC) 1–1 FC Barcelona UEFA Champions League | Newcastle United FC to win | Lost |