Kalshi · Baseball · American football · Football
thick.spy is a World Cup pro on Kalshi: 67 picks, 65.5% win rate, $2K profit. Real on-chain positions, updated daily.
Of the 60 most recent predictions listed below ( to ), 60 have settled: 36 won, 24 lost, 60.0% accuracy.
| League | Records | Settled | Won | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FIFA World Cup | 42 | 42 | 23 | 54.8% |
| Premier League | 6 | 6 | 5 | 83.3% |
| MLB | 5 | 5 | 3 | 60.0% |
| NFL | 4 | 4 | 3 | — |
| UEFA Nations League | 3 | 3 | 2 | — |
thick.spy mainly predicts World Cup: 42 of the last 60 recorded predictions. Platform: Kalshi.
Across the settled orders we have collected: 65.5% hit rate over 67 orders, P&L $2K, ROI 14.6%. In World Cup, 23 of 42 recent settled predictions were correct.
Hit rate = correct settled predictions ÷ settled predictions; pending ones are not counted. P&L and ROI use the cost and settlement of each public position. Past results do not predict future ones.
Source: public positions on Kalshi. Data as of 2026-10-01 07:32 UTC+8. Method: methodology
LWWWW
| Date | Match | Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | Houston Astros 3–7 Chicago White Sox MLB | Chicago WS wins | Won |
| 2026-09-30 | Houston Astros 3–7 Chicago White Sox MLB | Houston wins | Lost |
| 2026-09-29 | Houston Astros 3–6 Chicago White Sox MLB | Houston wins | Lost |
| 2026-09-29 | Scotland men's national football team (Scotland) 0–3 Switzerland men's national football team (Switzerland) UEFA Nations League | Team Over 0.5 | Lost |
| 2026-09-29 | Scotland men's national football team (Scotland) 0–3 Switzerland men's national football team (Switzerland) UEFA Nations League | Switzerland wins | Won |
| 2026-09-27 | Dallas Cowboys 31–34 Baltimore Ravens NFL | Baltimore wins | Won |
| 2026-09-26 | San Francisco 3–4 Los Angeles Dodgers MLB | Los Angeles D wins | Won |
| 2026-09-26 | England men's national association football team (England) 2–3 Spain men's national football team (Spain) UEFA Nations League | Over 4.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-13 | Carolina Panthers 3–44 Chicago Bears NFL | Chicago vs Carolina Pro Football game: Chicago wins | Won |
| 2026-09-11 | Los Angeles R 7–27 San Francisco NFL | San Francisco vs Los Angeles R Pro Football game: Los Angeles R wins | Lost |
| 2026-09-10 | Manchester United F.C. (Manchester United FC) 0–1 Manchester City F.C. (Manchester City FC) Premier League | Manchester City wins | Won |
| 2026-09-09 | Seattle Seahawks 13–10 New England Patriots NFL | New England vs Seattle Pro Football game: Seattle wins | Won |
| 2026-09-06 | Arsenal F.C. (Arsenal FC) 2–1 Chelsea F.C. (Chelsea FC) Premier League | Arsenal wins | Won |
| 2026-09-05 | Manchester City F.C. (Manchester City FC) 1–0 Coventry City F.C. (Coventry) Premier League | Manchester City wins | Won |
| 2026-09-04 | Ipswich Town F.C. (Ipswich Town FC) 0–2 Liverpool F.C. (Liverpool FC) Premier League | Liverpool wins | Won |
| 2026-08-30 | Detroit Tigers 1–6 Los Angeles Dodgers MLB | Los Angeles D wins | Won |
| 2026-08-30 | Chelsea F.C. (Chelsea FC) 4–3 Brighton & Hove Albion F.C. (Brighton) Premier League | Chelsea vs Brighton Winner | Lost |
| 2026-08-28 | Crystal Palace F.C. (Crystal Palace FC) 1–4 Manchester City F.C. (Manchester City FC) Premier League | Crystal Palace vs Manchester City Winner | Won |
| 2026-07-18 | France 4–6 England men's national association football team (England) FIFA World Cup | Ousmane Dembele: 1+ goals | Won |
| 2026-07-18 | France 4–6 England men's national association football team (England) FIFA World Cup | Kylian Mbappe: 2+ goals | Won |
| 2026-07-18 | France 4–6 England men's national association football team (England) FIFA World Cup | Kylian Mbappe: 1+ goals | Won |
| 2026-07-18 | France 4–6 England men's national association football team (England) FIFA World Cup | Over 5.5 | Won |
| 2026-07-18 | France 4–6 England men's national association football team (England) FIFA World Cup | France vs England: To Advance | Lost |
| 2026-07-14 | France 0–2 Spain men's national football team (Spain) FIFA World Cup | France vs Spain: To Advance | Lost |
| 2026-07-14 | France 0–2 Spain men's national football team (Spain) FIFA World Cup | France vs Spain: To Advance | Won |
| 2026-07-12 | Argentina men's national football team (Argentina) 3–1 Switzerland men's national football team (Switzerland) FIFA World Cup | Argentina vs Switzerland: To Advance | Won |
| 2026-07-11 | Norway men's national association football team (Norway) 1–2 England men's national association football team (England) FIFA World Cup | Norway vs England: To Advance | Won |
| 2026-07-11 | Norway men's national association football team (Norway) 1–2 England men's national association football team (England) FIFA World Cup | Norway vs England: To Advance | Lost |
| 2026-07-07 | USA 1–4 Belgium men's national football team (Belgium) FIFA World Cup | BEL -2.5 | Won |
| 2026-07-06 | Portugal men's national football team (Portugal) 0–1 Spain men's national football team (Spain) FIFA World Cup | Portugal vs Spain: To Advance | Lost |
| 2026-07-06 | Mexico men's national football team (Mexico) 2–3 England men's national association football team (England) FIFA World Cup | Over 3.5 | Won |
| 2026-07-06 | Mexico men's national football team (Mexico) 2–3 England men's national association football team (England) FIFA World Cup | Mexico vs England: To Advance | Won |
| 2026-07-05 | Brazil men's national football team (Brazil) 1–2 Norway men's national association football team (Norway) FIFA World Cup | Brazil vs Norway: To Advance | Won |
| 2026-07-04 | Paraguay men's national football team (Paraguay) 0–1 France FIFA World Cup | Over 0.5 | Won |
| 2026-07-03 | Argentina men's national football team (Argentina) 3–2 Cape Verde men's national football team (Cape Verde) FIFA World Cup | Argentina vs Cape Verde: To Advance | Lost |
| 2026-07-03 | Argentina men's national football team (Argentina) 3–2 Cape Verde men's national football team (Cape Verde) FIFA World Cup | Over 1.5 | Won |
| 2026-07-03 | Portugal men's national football team (Portugal) 2–1 Croatia men's national football team (Croatia) FIFA World Cup | Portugal win the 2nd Half | Won |
| 2026-07-03 | Portugal men's national football team (Portugal) 2–1 Croatia men's national football team (Croatia) FIFA World Cup | Portugal vs Croatia: To Advance | Lost |
| 2026-07-02 | Portugal men's national football team (Portugal) 2–1 Croatia men's national football team (Croatia) FIFA World Cup | Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals | Won |
| 2026-07-02 | Spain men's national football team (Spain) 3–0 Austria men's national football team (Austria) FIFA World Cup | Over 1.5 | Won |
| 2026-07-01 | Belgium men's national football team (Belgium) 3–2 Senegal men's national association football team (Senegal) FIFA World Cup | Belgium vs Senegal: To Advance | Lost |
| 2026-07-01 | England men's national association football team (England) 2–1 DR Congo men's national football team (Congo DR) FIFA World Cup | England vs Congo DR: To Advance | Lost |
| 2026-07-01 | England men's national association football team (England) 2–1 DR Congo men's national football team (Congo DR) FIFA World Cup | ENG -1.5 | Lost |
| 2026-06-30 | Netherlands 1–1 Morocco men's national football team (Morocco) FIFA World Cup | Netherlands vs Morocco: To Advance | Lost |
| 2026-06-29 | Germany 1–1 Paraguay men's national football team (Paraguay) FIFA World Cup | Germany vs Paraguay: To Advance | Lost |
| 2026-06-29 | Brazil men's national football team (Brazil) 2–1 Japan men's national football team (Japan) FIFA World Cup | Brazil vs Japan: To Advance | Lost |
| 2026-06-28 | Jordan men's national football team (Jordan) 1–3 Argentina men's national football team (Argentina) FIFA World Cup | Argentina: 8+ corners | Lost |
| 2026-06-28 | Jordan men's national football team (Jordan) 1–3 Argentina men's national football team (Argentina) FIFA World Cup | Lionel Messi: 2+ goals | Lost |
| 2026-06-28 | Jordan men's national football team (Jordan) 1–3 Argentina men's national football team (Argentina) FIFA World Cup | Lionel Messi: 1+ goals | Won |
| 2026-06-28 | Jordan men's national football team (Jordan) 1–3 Argentina men's national football team (Argentina) FIFA World Cup | ARG -2.5 | Lost |
| 2026-06-28 | DR Congo men's national football team (Congo DR) 3–1 Uzbekistan men's national football team (Uzbekistan) FIFA World Cup | Under 4.5 | Won |
| 2026-06-28 | DR Congo men's national football team (Congo DR) 3–1 Uzbekistan men's national football team (Uzbekistan) FIFA World Cup | COD +2.5 | Won |
| 2026-06-27 | Colombia men's national football team (Colombia) 0–0 Portugal men's national football team (Portugal) FIFA World Cup | Colombia vs Portugal Winner | Lost |
| 2026-06-27 | Panama men's national football team (Panama) 0–2 England men's national association football team (England) FIFA World Cup | Panama vs England Winner | Won |
| 2026-06-27 | Egypt men's national football team (Egypt) 1–1 IR Iran FIFA World Cup | Egypt vs IR Iran Winner | Lost |
| 2026-06-26 | Uruguay men's national football team (Uruguay) 0–1 Spain men's national football team (Spain) FIFA World Cup | Uruguay vs Spain Winner | Won |
| 2026-06-26 | Japan men's national football team (Japan) 1–1 Sweden men's national football team (Sweden) FIFA World Cup | Japan vs Sweden Winner | Lost |
| 2026-06-25 | Japan men's national football team (Japan) 1–1 Sweden men's national football team (Sweden) FIFA World Cup | Japan vs Sweden Winner | Lost |
| 2026-06-23 | Norway men's national association football team (Norway) 3–2 Senegal men's national association football team (Senegal) FIFA World Cup | Norway vs Senegal Winner | Won |
| 2026-06-22 | France 3–0 Iraq men's national football team (Iraq) FIFA World Cup | France vs Iraq Winner | Won |