CS2 ·
Luminosity vs Astralis prediction for 4 Oct 2026, 20:00 SGT (CS2). Prediction-market win probability: Luminosity 39%, Astralis 61% (Kalshi). Recent form, head-to-head and real positions of profitable pros on Polymarket/Kalshi.
Latest Kalshi chances: Luminosity 39% · Astralis 61% (updated )
Astralis is the prediction-market favourite at 61% (Kalshi, as of 2026-10-04 09:24 UTC+8). In the last 30 days, market favourites priced at 60–75% won 62% of 1315 finished matches we tracked. This is data, not a guaranteed result.
As of 2026-10-04 09:24 UTC+8, Kalshi shows: Luminosity 39% · Astralis 61%. These are the platform's displayed prices, not normalised, so they can add up to slightly more than 100%.
Luminosity, last 5: L W W L W. Astralis, last 5: W W W L L.
Sources: public prices and positions on Polymarket and Kalshi; results from public sports data. Data as of 2026-10-04 09:24 UTC+8. How we calculate: methodology
| 2026-10-03 | vs Nemiga | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-10-02 | vs BIG | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-10-01 | vs B8 | 2-0 | W |
| 2026-09-23 | vs 3DMAX | 2-3 | L |
| 2026-09-22 | vs B8 | 2-0 | W |
| 2026-10-04 | vs fnatic | 2-0 | W |
| 2026-10-03 | vs BIG | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-10-02 | vs FaZe | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-10-02 | vs Alliance | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-09-26 | vs 100 Thieves | 1-2 | L |
| Date | Match | Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | Stickman22 Polymarket | Counter-Strike: Luminosity vs Astralis (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 4 Playoffs | Pending |
| 2026-10-04 | bomb88oclaat Polymarket | Counter-Strike: Luminosity vs Astralis (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 4 Playoffs | Pending |
| 2026-10-04 | bomb88oclaat Polymarket | Counter-Strike: Luminosity vs Astralis (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 4 Playoffs | Pending |
| 2026-10-04 | bomb88oclaat Polymarket | Counter-Strike: Luminosity vs Astralis (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 4 Playoffs | Pending |
| 2026-10-04 | bomb88oclaat Polymarket | Counter-Strike: Luminosity vs Astralis (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 4 Playoffs | Pending |
| 2026-10-04 | bomb88oclaat Polymarket | Counter-Strike: Luminosity vs Astralis (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 4 Playoffs | Pending |
| 2026-10-04 | Stickman22 Polymarket | Counter-Strike: Luminosity vs Astralis (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 4 Playoffs | Pending |
| 2026-10-04 | Stickman22 Polymarket | Counter-Strike: Luminosity vs Astralis (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 4 Playoffs | Pending |