Prediction market price → probability
A prediction-market contract pays 1 unit if the outcome happens and nothing if it does not, so its price is the market’s probability. Enter the prices of each outcome to see the implied probability, the normalised probability and the gap.
Convert prices
| Outcome | Price (¢) | Implied | Normalised | Decimal equivalent |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome A | — | — | — | |
| Draw | — | — | — | |
| Outcome B | — | — | — | |
| Sum of prices — | Gap from 100¢ — | |||
One contract, step by step
- You pay 63¢ for one contract on outcome A.
- If A happens the contract pays 100¢; if not, it pays 0.
- So the price 63¢ is a 63% implied probability, the same as decimal odds of 1.59.
Live examples from upcoming matches
| Match | Prices | Sum | Normalised favourite |
|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina – Burkina FasoFifa Friendly · Polymarket | 96¢ · 3¢ · 1¢ | 100¢ | Argentina96.0% |
| Republic of Ireland – IsraelUEFA Nations League · Polymarket | 45¢ · 29¢ · 27¢ | 101¢ | Republic of Ireland44.6% |
| Raiders – ChiefsNFL · Polymarket | 34¢ · 67¢ | 101¢ | Chiefs66.3% |
| CA Tucumán – CA Barracas CentralLiga Profesional · Polymarket | 53¢ · 31¢ · 18¢ | 102¢ | CA Tucumán52.0% |
| CD Real Santander – Union MagdalenaCategoría Primera B · Polymarket | 30¢ · 30¢ · 41¢ | 101¢ | Union Magdalena40.6% |
| CA Mineiro – Red Bull BragantinoBrasileirão Série A · Polymarket | 46¢ · 28¢ · 28¢ | 102¢ | CA Mineiro45.1% |
| Vikings – DolphinsNFL · Polymarket | 84¢ · 17¢ | 101¢ | Vikings83.2% |
| Kosovo – AustriaUEFA Nations League · Polymarket | 29¢ · 28¢ · 45¢ | 102¢ | Austria44.1% |
How it works
- Implied probability = price in cents ÷ 100. Example: 63¢ → 63%.
- The prices of all outcomes rarely add up to exactly 100¢. The gap comes from the spread between buyers and sellers and from rounding.
- Normalised probability = price ÷ sum of all prices. Example: 63¢ and 39¢ add up to 102¢, so A = 63 ÷ 102 = 61.8%.
- Decimal equivalent = 100 ÷ price. Example: 40¢ → 2.50.
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<p><a href="https://sg.tips/tools/prediction-market-probability">Prediction market price to probability – SG Tips</a></p>Frequently asked questions
Is a Polymarket or Kalshi price the same as a probability?
Roughly, yes. A contract settles at 1 unit if the outcome happens and 0 if it does not, so a 63¢ price means traders as a group price the outcome at about 63%.
Why do Yes and No prices add up to more than 100¢?
The displayed prices come from an order book with a gap between the best buy and sell prices, and they are rounded. Dividing each price by the sum gives a normalised probability that adds up to 100%.
Which price does this page use for live examples?
The price each platform shows on its own market page for that outcome, rounded down to a whole number, the same figure shown on our match pages.
How do I compare a prediction-market price with decimal odds?
Divide 100 by the price in cents. A 40¢ contract is equivalent to decimal odds of 2.50; our odds converter does the other formats.
Does a high price mean the outcome is certain?
No. An 80¢ price still means about a one-in-five chance that it does not happen. Prices are a market estimate, not a guarantee, and past performance does not indicate future results.