Kalshi · Football
calm.bay is a World Cup pro on Kalshi: 32 picks, 62.5% win rate, $282 profit. Real on-chain positions, updated daily.
Of the 60 most recent predictions listed below ( to ), 60 have settled: 31 won, 29 lost, 51.7% accuracy.
| League | Records | Settled | Won | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FIFA World Cup | 46 | 46 | 23 | 50.0% |
| MLB | 6 | 6 | 4 | 66.7% |
| Intl Friendlies | 5 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% |
| NBA | 2 | 2 | 2 | — |
| NFL | 1 | 1 | 0 | — |
calm.bay mainly predicts World Cup: 46 of the last 60 recorded predictions. Platform: Kalshi.
Across the settled orders we have collected: 62.5% hit rate over 32 orders, P&L $282, ROI 18.2%. In World Cup, 23 of 46 recent settled predictions were correct.
Hit rate = correct settled predictions ÷ settled predictions; pending ones are not counted. P&L and ROI use the cost and settlement of each public position. Past results do not predict future ones.
Source: public positions on Kalshi. Data as of 2026-09-21 10:26 UTC+8. Method: methodology
| Date | Match | Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Kansas City Chiefs 33:30 IND Colts NFL | Indianapolis wins | Lost |
| 2026-07-18 | France 4:6 England men's national association football team (England) FIFA World Cup | Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals | Won |
| 2026-07-18 | France 4:6 England men's national association football team (England) FIFA World Cup | England wins 5-2 | Lost |
| 2026-07-18 | France 4:6 England men's national association football team (England) FIFA World Cup | England wins 4-3 | Lost |
| 2026-07-05 | Mexico men's national football team (Mexico) 2:3 England men's national association football team (England) FIFA World Cup | Mexico vs England: To Advance | Lost |
| 2026-07-03 | Portugal men's national football team (Portugal) 2:1 Croatia men's national football team (Croatia) FIFA World Cup | Portugal vs Croatia: To Advance | Lost |
| 2026-07-01 | England men's national association football team (England) 2:1 DR Congo men's national football team (Congo DR) FIFA World Cup | England vs Congo DR Winner | Lost |
| 2026-06-30 | Mexico men's national football team (Mexico) 2:0 Ecuador men's national football team (Ecuador) FIFA World Cup | Mexico vs Ecuador Winner | Won |
| 2026-06-30 | Mexico men's national football team (Mexico) 2:0 Ecuador men's national football team (Ecuador) FIFA World Cup | Mexico vs Ecuador: To Advance | Won |
| 2026-06-28 | Jordan men's national football team (Jordan) 1:3 Argentina men's national football team (Argentina) FIFA World Cup | Jordan vs Argentina Winner | Lost |
| 2026-06-28 | Algeria men's national football team (Algeria) 3:3 Austria men's national football team (Austria) FIFA World Cup | Algeria vs Austria Winner | Lost |
| 2026-06-26 | New York Mets 3:4 Chicago Cubs MLB | Chicago C vs New York M Winner | Lost |
| 2026-06-25 | Tunisia men's national football team (Tunisia) 1:3 Netherlands FIFA World Cup | Over 3.5 | Won |
| 2026-06-25 | Ecuador men's national football team (Ecuador) 2:1 Germany FIFA World Cup | Ecuador vs Germany Winner | Lost |
| 2026-06-25 | Ecuador men's national football team (Ecuador) 2:1 Germany FIFA World Cup | GER -1.5 | Lost |
| 2026-06-25 | San Francisco 2:1 Athletics MLB | A's vs San Francisco Winner | Won |
| 2026-06-25 | Minnesota 3:4 Los Angeles Dodgers MLB | Los Angeles D vs Minnesota Winner | Won |
| 2026-06-24 | Morocco men's national football team (Morocco) 4:2 Haiti men's national football team (Haiti) FIFA World Cup | MAR -1.5 | Won |
| 2026-06-24 | Colombia men's national football team (Colombia) 1:0 DR Congo men's national football team (Congo DR) FIFA World Cup | COL -1.5 | Lost |
| 2026-06-23 | Panama men's national football team (Panama) 0:1 Croatia men's national football team (Croatia) FIFA World Cup | Panama vs Croatia Winner | Won |
| 2026-06-23 | Jordan men's national football team (Jordan) 1:2 Algeria men's national football team (Algeria) FIFA World Cup | Jordan vs Algeria Winner | Won |
| 2026-06-23 | Norway men's national association football team (Norway) 3:2 Senegal men's national association football team (Senegal) FIFA World Cup | Norway vs Senegal Winner | Won |
| 2026-06-21 | Belgium men's national football team (Belgium) 0:0 IR Iran FIFA World Cup | Belgium vs IR Iran Winner | Lost |
| 2026-06-21 | Spain men's national football team (Spain) 4:0 Saudi Arabia men's national football team (Saudi Arabia) FIFA World Cup | ESP -2.5 | Won |
| 2026-06-20 | Germany 2:1 Ivory Coast men's national football team (Ivory Coast) FIFA World Cup | Germany vs Ivory Coast Winner | Lost |
| 2026-06-20 | Germany 2:1 Ivory Coast men's national football team (Ivory Coast) FIFA World Cup | Germany vs Ivory Coast Winner | Won |
| 2026-06-17 | Ghana men's national football team (Ghana) 1:0 Panama men's national football team (Panama) FIFA World Cup | Ghana vs Panama Winner | Won |
| 2026-06-17 | England men's national association football team (England) 4:2 Croatia men's national football team (Croatia) FIFA World Cup | England vs Croatia Winner | Won |
| 2026-06-17 | England men's national association football team (England) 4:2 Croatia men's national football team (Croatia) FIFA World Cup | both teams score | Won |
| 2026-06-17 | Austria men's national football team (Austria) 3:1 Jordan men's national football team (Jordan) FIFA World Cup | Austria vs Jordan Winner | Lost |
| 2026-06-17 | Argentina men's national football team (Argentina) 3:0 Algeria men's national football team (Algeria) FIFA World Cup | ARG -1.5 | Won |
| 2026-06-16 | IR Iran 2:2 New Zealand men's national football team (New Zealand) FIFA World Cup | IR Iran vs New Zealand Winner | Lost |
| 2026-06-15 | Saudi Arabia men's national football team (Saudi Arabia) 1:1 Uruguay men's national football team (Uruguay) FIFA World Cup | Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay Winner | Lost |
| 2026-06-15 | Saudi Arabia men's national football team (Saudi Arabia) 1:1 Uruguay men's national football team (Uruguay) FIFA World Cup | Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay Winner | Lost |
| 2026-06-15 | Belgium men's national football team (Belgium) 1:1 Egypt men's national football team (Egypt) FIFA World Cup | Belgium vs Egypt Winner | Won |
| 2026-06-15 | Belgium men's national football team (Belgium) 1:1 Egypt men's national football team (Egypt) FIFA World Cup | Belgium vs Egypt Winner | Lost |
| 2026-06-15 | Spain men's national football team (Spain) 0:0 Cape Verde men's national football team (Cape Verde) FIFA World Cup | Spain vs Cape Verde Winner | Won |
| 2026-06-15 | Sweden men's national football team (Sweden) 5:1 Tunisia men's national football team (Tunisia) FIFA World Cup | Sweden vs Tunisia Winner | Won |
| 2026-06-14 | Netherlands 2:2 Japan men's national football team (Japan) FIFA World Cup | Netherlands vs Japan Winner | Won |
| 2026-06-14 | Germany 7:1 Curaçao men's national football team (Curaçao) FIFA World Cup | GER -3.5 | Won |
| 2026-06-14 | Australia men's national soccer team (Australia) 2:0 Turkiye FIFA World Cup | Australia vs Turkiye Winner | Lost |
| 2026-06-14 | Australia men's national soccer team (Australia) 2:0 Turkiye FIFA World Cup | Australia vs Turkiye Winner | Lost |
| 2026-06-14 | Haiti men's national football team (Haiti) 0:1 Scotland men's national football team (Scotland) FIFA World Cup | Haiti vs Scotland Winner | Won |
| 2026-06-13 | Brazil men's national football team (Brazil) 1:1 Morocco men's national football team (Morocco) FIFA World Cup | Brazil vs Morocco Winner | Lost |
| 2026-06-13 | Brazil men's national football team (Brazil) 1:1 Morocco men's national football team (Morocco) FIFA World Cup | Brazil vs Morocco Winner | Lost |
| 2026-06-13 | Qatar men's national football team (Qatar) 1:1 Switzerland men's national football team (Switzerland) FIFA World Cup | Qatar vs Switzerland Winner | Lost |
| 2026-06-12 | USA 4:1 Paraguay men's national football team (Paraguay) FIFA World Cup | USA vs Paraguay Winner | Won |
| 2026-06-12 | Canadian men's national soccer team (Canada) 1:1 Bosnia and Herzegovina men's national football team (Bosnia and Herzegovina) FIFA World Cup | Canada vs Bosnia and Herzegovina Winner | Lost |
| 2026-06-11 | South Korea men's national football team (Korea Republic) 2:1 Czechia men's national football team (Czechia) FIFA World Cup | Korea Republic vs Czechia Winner | Won |
| 2026-06-11 | Kansas City 4:6 Texas MLB | Texas vs Kansas City Winner | Won |
| 2026-06-11 | Mexico men's national football team (Mexico) 2:0 South Africa men's national association football team (South Africa) FIFA World Cup | Mexico vs South Africa Winner | Won |
| 2026-06-11 | New 107:106 San Antonio NBA | Under 215.5 | Won |
| 2026-06-10 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC (Pittsburgh) 9:8 Los Angeles Dodgers MLB | Los Angeles D vs Pittsburgh Winner | Lost |
| 2026-06-10 | Cleveland 4:8 New York Yankees MLB | New York Y vs Cleveland Winner | Won |
| 2026-06-10 | Senegal men's national association football team (Senegal) 0:0 Saudi Arabia men's national football team (Saudi Arabia) Intl Friendlies | Senegal vs Saudi Arabia Winner | Won |
| 2026-06-09 | Iraq men's national football team (Iraq) 0:2 Venezuela national basketball team (Venezuela) Intl Friendlies | Iraq vs Venezuela Winner | Won |
| 2026-06-09 | Senegal men's national association football team (Senegal) 0:0 Saudi Arabia men's national football team (Saudi Arabia) Intl Friendlies | Senegal vs Saudi Arabia Winner | Lost |
| 2026-06-09 | China men's national football team (China PR) 0:0 Thailand Intl Friendlies | China PR vs Thailand Winner | Lost |
| 2026-06-08 | New 111:115 San Antonio NBA | Game 3: San Antonio at New York Winner | Won |
| 2026-06-08 | Netherlands 2:1 Uzbekistan men's national football team (Uzbekistan) Intl Friendlies | NED -2.5 | Lost |