Kalshi · Football
political.bag is a World Cup pro on Kalshi: 40 picks, 60.0% win rate, $4K profit. Real on-chain positions, updated daily.
Of the 60 most recent predictions listed below ( to ), 60 have settled: 34 won, 26 lost, 56.7% accuracy.
| League | Records | Settled | Won | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FIFA World Cup | 54 | 54 | 29 | 53.7% |
| NBA | 4 | 4 | 3 | — |
| Intl Friendlies | 2 | 2 | 2 | — |
political.bag mainly predicts World Cup: 54 of the last 60 recorded predictions. Platform: Kalshi.
Across the settled orders we have collected: 60.0% hit rate over 40 orders, P&L $4K, ROI 18.2%. In World Cup, 29 of 54 recent settled predictions were correct.
Hit rate = correct settled predictions ÷ settled predictions; pending ones are not counted. P&L and ROI use the cost and settlement of each public position. Past results do not predict future ones.
Source: public positions on Kalshi. Data as of 2026-06-30 11:00 UTC+8. Method: methodology
| Date | Match | Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | Netherlands 1:1 Morocco men's national football team (Morocco) FIFA World Cup | Netherlands vs Morocco: To Advance | Won |
| 2026-06-30 | Netherlands 1:1 Morocco men's national football team (Morocco) FIFA World Cup | Achraf Hakimi: 1+ goals | Lost |
| 2026-06-30 | Netherlands 1:1 Morocco men's national football team (Morocco) FIFA World Cup | Under 1.5 | Lost |
| 2026-06-29 | Germany 1:1 Paraguay men's national football team (Paraguay) FIFA World Cup | Under 2.5 | Won |
| 2026-06-29 | Germany 1:1 Paraguay men's national football team (Paraguay) FIFA World Cup | Under 2.5 | Won |
| 2026-06-29 | Germany 1:1 Paraguay men's national football team (Paraguay) FIFA World Cup | Germany vs Paraguay: To Advance | Won |
| 2026-06-29 | Germany 1:1 Paraguay men's national football team (Paraguay) FIFA World Cup | Draw 0-0 | Lost |
| 2026-06-29 | Brazil men's national football team (Brazil) 2:1 Japan men's national football team (Japan) FIFA World Cup | Brazil vs Japan Winner | Lost |
| 2026-06-28 | Brazil men's national football team (Brazil) 2:1 Japan men's national football team (Japan) FIFA World Cup | Brazil vs Japan: To Advance | Won |
| 2026-06-28 | Brazil men's national football team (Brazil) 2:1 Japan men's national football team (Japan) FIFA World Cup | Brazil win the 1st Half | Lost |
| 2026-06-28 | Brazil men's national football team (Brazil) 2:1 Japan men's national football team (Japan) FIFA World Cup | Brazil vs Japan Winner | Won |
| 2026-06-27 | Colombia men's national football team (Colombia) 0:0 Portugal men's national football team (Portugal) FIFA World Cup | Colombia vs Portugal Winner | Lost |
| 2026-06-27 | Panama men's national football team (Panama) 0:2 England men's national association football team (England) FIFA World Cup | ENG +2.5 | Won |
| 2026-06-27 | Colombia men's national football team (Colombia) 0:0 Portugal men's national football team (Portugal) FIFA World Cup | Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals | Lost |
| 2026-06-26 | Paraguay men's national football team (Paraguay) 0:0 Australia men's national soccer team (Australia) FIFA World Cup | Paraguay vs Australia Winner | Lost |
| 2026-06-25 | Ecuador men's national football team (Ecuador) 2:1 Germany FIFA World Cup | Ecuador vs Germany Winner | Lost |
| 2026-06-25 | Czechia men's national football team (Czechia) 0:3 Mexico men's national football team (Mexico) FIFA World Cup | 1H Under 0.5 | Won |
| 2026-06-25 | Czechia men's national football team (Czechia) 0:3 Mexico men's national football team (Mexico) FIFA World Cup | Czechia vs Mexico Winner | Won |
| 2026-06-24 | Morocco men's national football team (Morocco) 4:2 Haiti men's national football team (Haiti) FIFA World Cup | Team Under 3.5 | Lost |
| 2026-06-24 | Morocco men's national football team (Morocco) 4:2 Haiti men's national football team (Haiti) FIFA World Cup | Morocco vs Haiti Winner | Lost |
| 2026-06-24 | Morocco men's national football team (Morocco) 4:2 Haiti men's national football team (Haiti) FIFA World Cup | 1H Under 2.5 | Lost |
| 2026-06-24 | Morocco men's national football team (Morocco) 4:2 Haiti men's national football team (Haiti) FIFA World Cup | Morocco vs Haiti Winner | Lost |
| 2026-06-24 | Switzerland men's national football team (Switzerland) 2:1 Canadian men's national soccer team (Canada) FIFA World Cup | Switzerland vs Canada Winner | Won |
| 2026-06-24 | Switzerland men's national football team (Switzerland) 2:1 Canadian men's national soccer team (Canada) FIFA World Cup | Switzerland vs Canada Winner | Won |
| 2026-06-24 | Colombia men's national football team (Colombia) 1:0 DR Congo men's national football team (Congo DR) FIFA World Cup | COL +1.5 | Won |
| 2026-06-24 | Colombia men's national football team (Colombia) 1:0 DR Congo men's national football team (Congo DR) FIFA World Cup | Under 0.5 | Lost |
| 2026-06-24 | Panama men's national football team (Panama) 0:1 Croatia men's national football team (Croatia) FIFA World Cup | CRO +1.5 | Won |
| 2026-06-23 | England men's national association football team (England) 0:0 Ghana men's national football team (Ghana) FIFA World Cup | England vs Ghana Winner | Won |
| 2026-06-23 | England men's national association football team (England) 0:0 Ghana men's national football team (Ghana) FIFA World Cup | 1H Under 0.5 | Won |
| 2026-06-23 | Portugal men's national football team (Portugal) 5:0 Uzbekistan men's national football team (Uzbekistan) FIFA World Cup | POR +5.5 | Won |
| 2026-06-23 | Portugal men's national football team (Portugal) 5:0 Uzbekistan men's national football team (Uzbekistan) FIFA World Cup | Under 4.5 | Lost |
| 2026-06-23 | Portugal men's national football team (Portugal) 5:0 Uzbekistan men's national football team (Uzbekistan) FIFA World Cup | Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals | Won |
| 2026-06-23 | Jordan men's national football team (Jordan) 1:2 Algeria men's national football team (Algeria) FIFA World Cup | Jordan vs Algeria Winner | Lost |
| 2026-06-23 | Jordan men's national football team (Jordan) 1:2 Algeria men's national football team (Algeria) FIFA World Cup | Team Under 1.5 | Won |
| 2026-06-23 | Norway men's national association football team (Norway) 3:2 Senegal men's national association football team (Senegal) FIFA World Cup | Under 3.5 | Lost |
| 2026-06-22 | France 3:0 Iraq men's national football team (Iraq) FIFA World Cup | FRA +4.5 | Won |
| 2026-06-22 | Argentina men's national football team (Argentina) 2:0 Austria men's national football team (Austria) FIFA World Cup | Argentina vs Austria Winner | Won |
| 2026-06-22 | New Zealand men's national football team (New Zealand) 1:3 Egypt men's national football team (Egypt) FIFA World Cup | New Zealand vs Egypt Winner | Lost |
| 2026-06-21 | Belgium men's national football team (Belgium) 0:0 IR Iran FIFA World Cup | Belgium vs IR Iran Winner | Won |
| 2026-06-21 | Belgium men's national football team (Belgium) 0:0 IR Iran FIFA World Cup | Belgium vs IR Iran Winner | Lost |
| 2026-06-20 | Germany 2:1 Ivory Coast men's national football team (Ivory Coast) FIFA World Cup | 1H Under 1.5 | Won |
| 2026-06-18 | Uzbekistan men's national football team (Uzbekistan) 1:3 Colombia men's national football team (Colombia) FIFA World Cup | COL +1.5 | Lost |
| 2026-06-16 | France 3:1 Senegal men's national association football team (Senegal) FIFA World Cup | Senegal record the first goal of the game | Won |
| 2026-06-16 | France 3:1 Senegal men's national association football team (Senegal) FIFA World Cup | France vs Senegal Winner | Won |
| 2026-06-14 | Ivory Coast men's national football team (Ivory Coast) 1:0 Ecuador men's national football team (Ecuador) FIFA World Cup | Ivory Coast vs Ecuador Winner | Won |
| 2026-06-14 | San Antonio 90:94 New NBA | Under 186.5 | Won |
| 2026-06-13 | Brazil men's national football team (Brazil) 1:1 Morocco men's national football team (Morocco) FIFA World Cup | Brazil vs Morocco Winner | Won |
| 2026-06-13 | Brazil men's national football team (Brazil) 1:1 Morocco men's national football team (Morocco) FIFA World Cup | Brazil win the 1st Half | Lost |
| 2026-06-13 | Brazil men's national football team (Brazil) 1:1 Morocco men's national football team (Morocco) FIFA World Cup | MAR -1.5 | Lost |
| 2026-06-13 | Brazil men's national football team (Brazil) 1:1 Morocco men's national football team (Morocco) FIFA World Cup | Brazil vs Morocco Winner | Lost |
| 2026-06-13 | Qatar men's national football team (Qatar) 1:1 Switzerland men's national football team (Switzerland) FIFA World Cup | SUI +2.5 | Won |
| 2026-06-13 | Brazil men's national football team (Brazil) 1:1 Morocco men's national football team (Morocco) FIFA World Cup | Brazil vs Morocco Winner | Lost |
| 2026-06-13 | Qatar men's national football team (Qatar) 1:1 Switzerland men's national football team (Switzerland) FIFA World Cup | SUI -1.5 | Lost |
| 2026-06-12 | USA 4:1 Paraguay men's national football team (Paraguay) FIFA World Cup | USA vs Paraguay Winner | Won |
| 2026-06-11 | Mexico men's national football team (Mexico) 2:0 South Africa men's national association football team (South Africa) FIFA World Cup | Under 2.5 | Won |
| 2026-06-11 | New 107:106 San Antonio NBA | Under 218.5 | Won |
| 2026-06-11 | New 107:106 San Antonio NBA | Game 4: San Antonio at New York Winner | Won |
| 2026-06-10 | New 107:106 San Antonio NBA | Under 59.5 | Lost |
| 2026-06-08 | France 3:1 Northern Ireland men's national association football team (Northern Ireland) Intl Friendlies | Under 4.5 | Won |
| 2026-06-08 | France 3:1 Northern Ireland men's national association football team (Northern Ireland) Intl Friendlies | FRA +2.5 | Won |