Kalshi · Football
sad.birth is a Nations League pro on Kalshi: 30 picks, 72.4% win rate, $1K profit. Real on-chain positions, updated daily.
Of the 60 most recent predictions listed below ( to ), 60 have settled: 39 won, 21 lost, 65.0% accuracy.
| League | Records | Settled | Won | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nations League | 14 | 14 | 10 | 71.4% |
| AFCON | 7 | 7 | 6 | 85.7% |
| Premier League | 6 | 6 | 5 | 83.3% |
| Liga MX | 6 | 6 | 4 | 66.7% |
| Intl Friendlies | 5 | 5 | 3 | 60.0% |
| NBA | 3 | 3 | 0 | — |
sad.birth mainly predicts Nations League: 14 of the last 60 recorded predictions. Platform: Kalshi.
Across the settled orders we have collected: 72.4% hit rate over 30 orders, P&L $1K, ROI 26.5%. In Nations League, 10 of 14 recent settled predictions were correct.
Hit rate = correct settled predictions ÷ settled predictions; pending ones are not counted. P&L and ROI use the cost and settlement of each public position. Past results do not predict future ones.
Source: public positions on Kalshi. Data as of 2026-10-18 05:30 UTC+8. Method: methodology
LWWWL
| Date | Match | Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 | Ceará Sporting Club (Ceara) 2:2 Juventude RS Brasileiro Serie B | Juventude RS wins | Lost |
| 2026-10-17 | Minnesota 3:2 St. Louis City SC (Saint Louis) MLS | Over 2.5 | Won |
| 2026-10-17 | Newcastle United F.C. (Newcastle) 0:1 Aston Villa F.C. (Aston Villa FC) Premier League | Under 5.5 | Won |
| 2026-10-17 | Manchester City F.C. (Manchester City FC) 3:2 Ipswich Town F.C. (Ipswich Town FC) Premier League | MCI +3.5 | Won |
| 2026-10-17 | Everton F.C. (Everton FC) 0:2 Chelsea F.C. (Chelsea FC) Premier League | CFC +2.5 | Won |
| 2026-10-17 | Golden State Warriors 128:118 Portland Trail Blazers NBA | Portland wins | Lost |
| 2026-10-17 | Chicago Bulls 133:116 Minnesota Timberwolves NBA | Minnesota wins | Lost |
| 2026-10-17 | Philadelphia 76ers 120:125 Boston Celtics NBA | Philadelphia wins | Lost |
| 2026-09-29 | Finland men's national football team (Finland) 0:0 Belarus men's national football team (Belarus) Nations League | Under 0.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-29 | Lesotho men's national football team (Lesotho) 0:2 Morocco men's national football team (Morocco) AFCON | MAR +2.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-29 | Lesotho men's national football team (Lesotho) 0:2 Morocco men's national football team (Morocco) AFCON | Morocco wins | Won |
| 2026-09-29 | Wuxi Wugou 1:0 Ningbo Professional China League 1 | WUX +2.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-29 | Australia men's national soccer team (Australia) 2:4 Brazil men's national football team (Brazil) Intl Friendlies | BRA +1.5 | Lost |
| 2026-09-29 | Chicago Bears 27:7 Philadelphia Eagles NFL | Chicago wins | Won |
| 2026-09-28 | Chicago Bears 27:7 Philadelphia Eagles NFL | PHI +20.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-28 | Cuba national basketball team (Cuba) 2:0 Bonaire CONCACAF Nations League | Cuba wins | Won |
| 2026-09-28 | Belgium men's national football team (Belgium) 0:1 France Nations League | BEL +1.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-28 | Belgium men's national football team (Belgium) 0:1 France Nations League | FRA +1.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-28 | Zimbabwe men's national football team (Zimbabwe) 1:2 DR Congo men's national football team (Congo DR) AFCON | Under 3.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-28 | Georgia men's national football team (Georgia) 0:0 Ukraine men's national football team (Ukraine) Nations League | UKR +1.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-28 | Georgia men's national football team (Georgia) 0:0 Ukraine men's national football team (Ukraine) Nations League | 1H Under 2.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-28 | Georgia men's national football team (Georgia) 0:0 Ukraine men's national football team (Ukraine) Nations League | GEO -1.5 | Lost |
| 2026-09-26 | Pereira 0:0 Internacional de Bogota Colombian Liga DIMAYOR | Over 0.5 | Lost |
| 2026-09-26 | USA 4:1 Peru men's national football team (Peru) Intl Friendlies | USA wins | Won |
| 2026-09-26 | England men's national association football team (England) 2:3 Spain men's national football team (Spain) Nations League | England wins | Won |
| 2026-09-26 | England men's national association football team (England) 2:3 Spain men's national football team (Spain) Nations League | 1H Under 2.5 | Lost |
| 2026-09-26 | England men's national association football team (England) 2:3 Spain men's national football team (Spain) Nations League | 1H Over 1.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-26 | Granada CF 2:3 Andorra La Liga 2 | AND -1.5 | Lost |
| 2026-09-26 | Granada CF 2:3 Andorra La Liga 2 | Under 5.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-26 | Kenya men's national football team (Kenya) 1:1 Eritrea AFCON | Under 2.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-26 | Kenya men's national football team (Kenya) 1:1 Eritrea AFCON | KEN +1.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-26 | Tijuana de Caliente 2:3 Atlas F.C. (Atlas FC) Liga MX | TIJ +1.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-26 | Atlante F.C. (Atlante FC) 4:2 Club de Fútbol Monterrey (CF Monterrey) Liga MX | ALA +2.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-26 | Atlante F.C. (Atlante FC) 4:2 Club de Fútbol Monterrey (CF Monterrey) Liga MX | Under 5.5 | Lost |
| 2026-09-25 | Grenada 0:3 Cuba national basketball team (Cuba) CONCACAF Nations League | Under 2.5 | Lost |
| 2026-09-25 | Turkiye 0:1 France Nations League | Under 3.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-25 | Turkiye 0:1 France Nations League | Tie is the result | Lost |
| 2026-09-25 | Italy men's national association football team (Italy) 0:2 Belgium men's national football team (Belgium) Nations League | Belgium wins 1st Half | Won |
| 2026-09-25 | Nigeria men's national basketball team (Nigeria) 2:1 Madagascar men's national football team (Madagascar) AFCON | Under 4.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-25 | Mozambique men's national football team (Mozambique) 1:1 Senegal men's national association football team (Senegal) AFCON | Senegal wins | Lost |
| 2026-09-25 | Australia men's national soccer team (Australia) 1:1 Brazil men's national football team (Brazil) Intl Friendlies | Under 2.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-24 | Norway men's national association football team (Norway) 3:2 Denmark men's national football team (Denmark) Nations League | Under 6.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-24 | Norway men's national association football team (Norway) 3:2 Denmark men's national football team (Denmark) Nations League | 1H Under 2.5 | Lost |
| 2026-09-24 | Uzbekistan men's national football team (Uzbekistan) 3:1 IR Iran Intl Friendlies | Under 3.5 | Lost |
| 2026-09-24 | South Korea men's national football team (Korea Republic) 3:0 Ecuador men's national football team (Ecuador) Intl Friendlies | Under 3.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-22 | FC Bayern München W 2:2 Manchester City WFC Women's Champions League | Bayern wins | Lost |
| 2026-09-19 | Bilbao 0:0 Deportivo Alavés (Alaves) La Liga | Bilbao wins | Lost |
| 2026-09-19 | Bilbao 0:0 Deportivo Alavés (Alaves) La Liga | Over 0.5 | Lost |
| 2026-09-19 | Newcastle United F.C. (Newcastle) 2:1 Hull City A.F.C. (Hull City AFC) Premier League | NEW +2.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-19 | Juarez 2:0 Tigres UANL (Tigres) Liga MX | Juarez wins | Lost |
| 2026-09-19 | Juarez 2:0 Tigres UANL (Tigres) Liga MX | 1H Under 1.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-19 | Puebla F.C. (Club Puebla) 1:1 Atlante F.C. (Atlante FC) Liga MX | Under 2.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-19 | New York City FC 0:1 Red Bull New York (New York RB) MLS | New York RB wins | Won |
| 2026-09-18 | Instituto Atlético Central Córdoba (Central Cordoba) 2:2 Defensa y Justicia Argentina Primera Division | Under 3.5 | Lost |
| 2026-09-18 | RCD Espanyol de Barcelona (Espanyol) 1:3 Elche CF La Liga | Elche wins | Won |
| 2026-09-18 | Brentford F.C. (Brentford FC) 3:0 Chelsea F.C. (Chelsea FC) Premier League | Brentford wins | Won |
| 2026-09-18 | Brentford F.C. (Brentford FC) 3:0 Chelsea F.C. (Chelsea FC) Premier League | 1H Over 0.5 | Lost |
| 2026-09-18 | FC Bayern Munich (Bayern Munich) 7:0 1. FC Union Berlin (Union Berlin) Bundesliga | 1H Over 1.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-18 | Jong FC Utrecht 1:3 Venlo Eerste Divisie | Under 4.5 | Won |
| 2026-09-18 | VfL Wolfsburg 5:1 Darmstadt Bundesliga 2 | WOB -1.5 | Won |