Kalshi · Football
thoughtful.flea1404 is a MLS pro on Kalshi: 59 picks, 62.7% win rate, $437 profit. Real on-chain positions, updated daily.
Of the 60 most recent predictions listed below ( to ), 60 have settled: 26 won, 34 lost, 43.3% accuracy.
| League | Records | Settled | Won | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLS | 23 | 23 | 6 | 26.1% |
| FIFA World Cup | 10 | 10 | 6 | 60.0% |
| Leagues Cup | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% |
| Club Friendlies | 4 | 4 | 2 | — |
| Chile Liga de Primera | 3 | 3 | 2 | — |
| Colombian Liga DIMAYOR | 3 | 3 | 2 | — |
thoughtful.flea1404 mainly predicts MLS: 23 of the last 60 recorded predictions. Platform: Kalshi.
Across the settled orders we have collected: 62.7% hit rate over 59 orders, P&L $437, ROI 16.6%. In MLS, 6 of 23 recent settled predictions were correct.
Hit rate = correct settled predictions ÷ settled predictions; pending ones are not counted. P&L and ROI use the cost and settlement of each public position. Past results do not predict future ones.
Source: public positions on Kalshi. Data as of 2026-08-20 11:05 UTC+8. Method: methodology
| Date | Match | Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Seattle 1:2 Austin FC MLS | Seattle vs Austin Winner | Lost |
| 2026-08-20 | Seattle 1:2 Austin FC MLS | Seattle vs Austin Winner | Lost |
| 2026-08-13 | Seattle 1:2 C.D. Guadalajara (CD Guadalajara) Leagues Cup | Seattle vs Guadalajara Winner | Lost |
| 2026-08-13 | Seattle 1:2 C.D. Guadalajara (CD Guadalajara) Leagues Cup | Seattle vs Guadalajara Winner | Lost |
| 2026-08-07 | Cruz Azul (CF Cruz Azul) 1:0 Philadelphia Leagues Cup | Cruz Azul vs Philadelphia Winner | Lost |
| 2026-08-07 | Cruz Azul (CF Cruz Azul) 1:0 Philadelphia Leagues Cup | Cruz Azul vs Philadelphia Winner | Lost |
| 2026-08-06 | Toluca FC (Toluca) 3:0 Seattle Leagues Cup | Toluca vs Seattle Winner | Lost |
| 2026-08-06 | Cupid Esports 0:2 NRG Esports North American Challengers League | Map 2: NRG Esports | Won |
| 2026-08-02 | Galatasaray S.K. (Galatasaray) 3:3 Stade Rennais F.C. (Stade Rennais FC 1901) Club Friendlies | Galatasaray vs Stade Rennais Winner | Lost |
| 2026-08-02 | Chicago Fire FC 2:1 Charlotte FC MLS | Chicago Fire vs Charlotte Winner | Won |
| 2026-08-02 | Chicago Fire FC 2:1 Charlotte FC MLS | Chicago Fire vs Charlotte Winner | Lost |
| 2026-08-02 | Inter Miami CF 2:2 Columbus Crew (Columbus) MLS | Miami vs Columbus Winner | Lost |
| 2026-08-02 | Vancouver Whitecaps FC (Vancouver) 1:1 Los Angeles FC MLS | Vancouver vs Los Angeles F Winner | Lost |
| 2026-08-01 | Red Bull New York (New York RB) 3:2 Orlando MLS | New York RB vs Orlando Winner | Won |
| 2026-08-01 | D.C. United (D.C. United SC) 2:2 Nashville SC MLS | DC United vs Nashville Winner | Lost |
| 2026-08-01 | Vancouver Whitecaps FC (Vancouver) 1:1 Los Angeles FC MLS | Vancouver vs Los Angeles F Winner | Lost |
| 2026-08-01 | C.D. Palestino (CD Palestino) 2:1 Coquimbo Chile Liga de Primera | Palestino vs Coquimbo Winner | Won |
| 2026-08-01 | C.D. Palestino (CD Palestino) 2:1 Coquimbo Chile Liga de Primera | Palestino vs Coquimbo Winner | Lost |
| 2026-08-01 | Alianza Fútbol Club (Alianza FC Valledupar) 1:2 Tolima Colombian Liga DIMAYOR | Alianza FC Valledupar vs Tolima Winner | Lost |
| 2026-08-01 | Ostrava 0:4 SK Slavia Prague (Slavia Prague) Czech First League | Ostrava vs Slavia Prague Winner | Won |
| 2026-08-01 | BK Häcken (BK Hacken) 1:1 Kalmar Allsvenskan | BK Hacken vs Kalmar Winner | Won |
| 2026-08-01 | Fortaleza Fútbol Club (Fortaleza CEIF) 0:0 Pereira Colombian Liga DIMAYOR | Fortaleza vs Pereira Winner | Won |
| 2026-08-01 | U de Concepcion 0:1 Audax Italiano (Audax) Chile Liga de Primera | U de Concepcion vs Audax Winner | Won |
| 2026-08-01 | New York City FC 1:1 Toronto FC MLS | New York City vs Toronto Winner | Won |
| 2026-07-31 | New York City FC 1:1 Toronto FC MLS | New York City vs Toronto Winner | Lost |
| 2026-07-31 | Montevideo City Torque (Montevideo City) 0:2 Wanderers Uruguay Primera Division | Montevideo City vs Wanderers Winner | Won |
| 2026-07-31 | Montevideo City Torque (Montevideo City) 0:2 Wanderers Uruguay Primera Division | Montevideo City vs Wanderers Winner | Lost |
| 2026-07-31 | Birmingham City F.C. (Birmingham) 2:2 FC Barcelona Club Friendlies | Birmingham vs Barcelona Winner | Won |
| 2026-07-31 | Birmingham City F.C. (Birmingham) 2:2 FC Barcelona Club Friendlies | Birmingham vs Barcelona Winner | Lost |
| 2026-07-31 | Bucaramanga 1:1 Llaneros Colombian Liga DIMAYOR | Bucaramanga vs Llaneros Winner | Won |
| 2026-07-31 | Instituto Atlético Central Córdoba (Central Cordoba) 0:2 Atlético Tucumán (Atletico Tucuman) Argentina Primera Division | Central Cordoba vs Tucuman Winner | Lost |
| 2026-07-31 | Leeds United F.C. (Leeds United FC) 1:0 Sunderland A.F.C. (Sunderland AFC) Club Friendlies | Leeds United vs Sunderland Winner | Won |
| 2026-07-31 | Coritiba F.C. (Coritiba) 0:1 Cruzeiro E.C. (Cruzeiro) Brasileiro Serie A | Coritiba vs Cruzeiro Winner | Won |
| 2026-07-31 | Coritiba F.C. (Coritiba) 0:1 Cruzeiro E.C. (Cruzeiro) Brasileiro Serie A | Coritiba vs Cruzeiro Winner | Lost |
| 2026-07-30 | Fluminense F.C. (Fluminense FC) 0:0 Bahia Brasileiro Serie A | Fluminense vs Bahia Winner | Won |
| 2026-07-29 | Club Atlético Rosario Central (Rosario) 0:0 Racing Club (Racing Avellaneda) Argentina Primera Division | Rosario vs Racing Avellaneda Winner | Lost |
| 2026-07-29 | Club Atlético Rosario Central (Rosario) 0:0 Racing Club (Racing Avellaneda) Argentina Primera Division | Rosario vs Racing Avellaneda Winner | Won |
| 2026-07-29 | Associação Atlética Ponte Preta (Ponte Preta) 1:1 Athletic Club Sjdr Brasileiro Serie B | Ponte Preta vs Athletic Club Sjdr Winner | Won |
| 2026-07-26 | Portland Fire (Portland) 2:1 Real Salt Lake (Salt Lake) MLS | Portland vs Salt Lake Winner | Lost |
| 2026-07-26 | San Diego FC 1:0 FC Dallas MLS | San Diego FC vs Dallas Winner | Won |
| 2026-07-26 | San Diego FC 1:0 FC Dallas MLS | San Diego FC vs Dallas Winner | Lost |
| 2026-07-26 | Montreal 0:1 Inter Miami CF MLS | Montreal vs Miami Winner | Won |
| 2026-07-26 | Philadelphia 1:0 Seattle MLS | Philadelphia vs Seattle Winner | Lost |
| 2026-07-25 | Philadelphia 1:0 Seattle MLS | Philadelphia vs Seattle Winner | Lost |
| 2026-07-23 | Austin FC 3:1 Seattle MLS | Austin vs Seattle Winner | Won |
| 2026-07-23 | Austin FC 3:1 Seattle MLS | Austin vs Seattle Winner | Lost |
| 2026-07-23 | Austin FC 3:1 Seattle MLS | Austin vs Seattle Winner | Lost |
| 2026-07-18 | France 4:6 England men's national association football team (England) FIFA World Cup | France vs England: To Advance | Won |
| 2026-07-18 | France 4:6 England men's national association football team (England) FIFA World Cup | FRA -1.5 | Lost |
| 2026-07-17 | Nashville SC 1:0 Atlanta United FC MLS | Nashville vs Atlanta Winner | Lost |
| 2026-07-17 | Seattle 1:5 Portland Fire (Portland) MLS | Seattle vs Portland Winner | Lost |
| 2026-07-17 | Seattle 1:5 Portland Fire (Portland) MLS | Seattle vs Portland Winner | Lost |
| 2026-07-14 | France 0:2 Spain men's national football team (Spain) FIFA World Cup | France vs Spain: To Advance | Lost |
| 2026-07-12 | Argentina men's national football team (Argentina) 1:1 Switzerland men's national football team (Switzerland) FIFA World Cup | Argentina vs Switzerland: To Advance | Won |
| 2026-07-12 | Argentina men's national football team (Argentina) 1:1 Switzerland men's national football team (Switzerland) FIFA World Cup | Argentina vs Switzerland Winner | Lost |
| 2026-07-10 | Spain men's national football team (Spain) 2:1 Belgium men's national football team (Belgium) FIFA World Cup | Spain vs Belgium Winner | Lost |
| 2026-07-10 | Spain men's national football team (Spain) 2:1 Belgium men's national football team (Belgium) FIFA World Cup | Spain vs Belgium Winner | Won |
| 2026-07-10 | Spain men's national football team (Spain) 2:1 Belgium men's national football team (Belgium) FIFA World Cup | both teams score | Won |
| 2026-07-09 | France 2:0 Morocco men's national football team (Morocco) FIFA World Cup | France vs Morocco Winner | Won |
| 2026-07-07 | USA 1:4 Belgium men's national football team (Belgium) FIFA World Cup | USA vs Belgium Winner | Won |