UEFA Nations League ·
Croatia vs Spain prediction for 7 Oct 2026, 02:45 SGT (UEFA Nations League): 65 profitable pros on Polymarket/Kalshi have taken positions, 60% backing Spain to win. Prediction-market win probability: Croatia 8%, the draw 15%, Spain 79% (Polymarket). Recent form, head-to-head and every pro's pick.
Latest Polymarket chances: Croatia 8% · Draw 15% · Spain 79% (updated )
Spain is the prediction-market favourite at 79% (Polymarket, as of 2026-10-05 19:14 UTC+8). Of 45 profitable pros with a win/draw position, 27 (60%) back Spain to win. In the last 30 days, market favourites priced at ≥75% won 66% of 1220 finished matches we tracked. This is data, not a guaranteed result.
As of 2026-10-05 19:14 UTC+8, Polymarket shows: Croatia 8% · Draw 15% · Spain 79%. These are the platform's displayed prices, not normalised, so they can add up to slightly more than 100%.
65 profitable pros (listed on Tips, cumulative P&L above zero) hold positions on this match. Latest win/draw pick per pro: Croatia 15 (33%) · Draw 3 (7%) · Spain 27 (60%).
Croatia, last 5: L L W L W. Spain, last 5: W W W D W.
Sources: public prices and positions on Polymarket and Kalshi; results from public sports data. Data as of 2026-10-05 19:14 UTC+8. How we calculate: methodology
65 profitable pros have positions on this match. Latest win/draw pick per pro: Croatia to win 15 (33%) · the draw 3 (7%) · Spain to win 27 (60%).
| 2026-10-03 | vs England | 0-7 | L |
| 2026-09-30 | vs Spain | 1-4 | L |
| 2026-09-27 | vs Czechia | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-07-03 | vs Portugal | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-06-28 | vs Ghana | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-10-04 | vs Czechia | 3-1 | W |
| 2026-09-30 | vs Croatia | 4-1 | W |
| 2026-09-27 | vs England | 3-2 | W |
| 2026-07-20 | vs Argentina | 0-0 | D |
| 2026-07-15 | vs France | 2-0 | W |
| Date | Match | Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 | Flaznorp Polymarket | Croatia vs Spain O/U 2.5 | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | Flaznorp Polymarket | Spain to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | Flaznorp Polymarket | Croatia vs Spain O/U 1.5 | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | 0x4d2d…b9cf Polymarket | Spain to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | 0xf1a6…cad3 Polymarket | Spain to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | Flaznorp Polymarket | both teams to score | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | 0xf1a6…cad3 Polymarket | Spain to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | 0x45cd…7eb3 Polymarket | Spain to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | Flaznorp Polymarket | Croatia vs Spain O/U 2.5 | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | Flaznorp Polymarket | Croatia -1.5 spread | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | Trivial-Player Polymarket | Croatia vs Spain O/U 3.5 | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | Trivial-Player Polymarket | Spain -1.5 spread | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | reppp Polymarket | Croatia to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | reppp Polymarket | Spain to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | choupibudou Polymarket | Spain to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | Extraneous-Transom Polymarket | Spain to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | 1xx3 Polymarket | Spain to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | Flaznorp Polymarket | Croatia -1.5 spread | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | Flaznorp Polymarket | Croatia vs Spain O/U 3.5 | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | Flaznorp Polymarket | Croatia vs Spain O/U 3.5 | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | 0x4d2d…b9cf Polymarket | Spain to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | senyama Polymarket | Spain to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | Flaznorp Polymarket | Croatia vs Spain O/U 3.5 | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | Flaznorp Polymarket | Croatia vs Spain O/U 2.5 | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | Flaznorp Polymarket | Croatia vs Spain O/U 3.5 | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | Flaznorp Polymarket | Croatia vs Spain O/U 3.5 | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | 0x45cd…7eb3 Polymarket | Spain to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | Flaznorp Polymarket | Croatia -1.5 spread | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | Flaznorp Polymarket | Croatia vs Spain O/U 2.5 | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | Flaznorp Polymarket | Croatia vs Spain O/U 3.5 | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | Flaznorp Polymarket | Croatia vs Spain O/U 3.5 | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | Flaznorp Polymarket | Croatia vs Spain O/U 3.5 | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | ItsHosseinooo Polymarket | Spain to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | Flaznorp Polymarket | Croatia vs Spain O/U 3.5 | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | Flaznorp Polymarket | Croatia vs Spain O/U 0.5 | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | supporting.gerbil8964 Kalshi | Spain wins | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | dersh.gersh Kalshi | Team Over 2.5 | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | Flaznorp Polymarket | Spain -1.5 spread | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | Flaznorp Polymarket | Croatia vs Spain O/U 3.5 | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | cycloid Kalshi | ESP -2.5 | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | Flaznorp Polymarket | Spain -1.5 spread | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | polite.wolverine9579 Kalshi | Over 3.5 | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | Flaznorp Polymarket | Croatia to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | zlSobrinho Polymarket | Croatia to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | ItsHosseinooo Polymarket | Spain to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | doador Polymarket | Croatia to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | gpimente407 Polymarket | Croatia to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | Flaznorp Polymarket | Spain -1.5 spread | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | Flaznorp Polymarket | Spain -1.5 spread | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | Flaznorp Polymarket | Croatia vs Spain O/U 2.5 | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | nf99 Kalshi | Tie is the result | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | ishxn99 Kalshi | Spain wins | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | Robertozavatti Polymarket | Croatia to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | Predebon Polymarket | Croatia to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | suntori Polymarket | Spain to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | Flaznorp Polymarket | Spain to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | dersh.gersh Kalshi | ESP -2.5 | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | shy.robin0846 Kalshi | Spain wins | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | Flaznorp Polymarket | Croatia to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | Flaznorp Polymarket | Croatia to win | Pending |