UEFA Nations League ·
Italy vs Türkiye prediction for 6 Oct 2026, 02:45 SGT (UEFA Nations League): 57 profitable pros on Polymarket/Kalshi have taken positions, 100% backing Italy to win. Prediction-market win probability: Italy 70%, the draw 19%, Türkiye 13% (Polymarket). Recent form, head-to-head and every pro's pick.
Latest Polymarket chances: Italy 70% · Draw 19% · Türkiye 13% (updated )
Italy is the prediction-market favourite at 70% (Polymarket, as of 2026-10-05 10:42 UTC+8). Of 4 profitable pros with a win/draw position, 4 (100%) back Italy to win. In the last 30 days, market favourites priced at 60–75% won 59% of 1726 finished matches we tracked. This is data, not a guaranteed result.
As of 2026-10-05 10:42 UTC+8, Polymarket shows: Italy 70% · Draw 19% · Türkiye 13%. These are the platform's displayed prices, not normalised, so they can add up to slightly more than 100%.
57 profitable pros (listed on Tips, cumulative P&L above zero) hold positions on this match. Latest win/draw pick per pro: Italy 4 (100%) · Draw 0 (0%) · Türkiye 0 (0%).
Italy, last 5: D W L W W. Türkiye, last 5: L L L W L.
Sources: public prices and positions on Polymarket and Kalshi; results from public sports data. Data as of 2026-10-05 10:42 UTC+8. How we calculate: methodology
57 profitable pros have positions on this match. Latest win/draw pick per pro: Italy to win 4 (100%) · the draw 0 (0%) · Türkiye to win 0 (0%).
| 2026-10-03 | vs France | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-09-29 | vs Türkiye | 4-1 | W |
| 2026-09-26 | vs Belgium | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-06-08 | vs Greece | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-06-04 | vs Luxembourg | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-10-03 | vs Belgium | 0-3 | L |
| 2026-09-29 | vs Italy | 1-4 | L |
| 2026-09-26 | vs France | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-06-26 | vs United States | 3-2 | W |
| 2026-06-20 | vs Paraguay | 0-1 | L |
| Date | Match | Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 | Flaznorp Polymarket | Italy vs Türkiye O/U 1.5 | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | Flaznorp Polymarket | Italy vs Türkiye O/U 4.5 | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | Flaznorp Polymarket | Türkiye to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | Flaznorp Polymarket | Italy vs Türkiye O/U 3.5 | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | Flaznorp Polymarket | Italy vs Türkiye O/U 2.5 | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | Soupy-Perfume Polymarket | Italy to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | _test_i075_i078_3 Polymarket | Italy to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | Safe-Litigation-Quiet Polymarket | Türkiye to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | Flaznorp Polymarket | Italy -1.5 spread | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | Flaznorp Polymarket | Italy vs Türkiye O/U 1.5 | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | Safe-Litigation-Quiet Polymarket | Italy vs Türkiye O/U 1.5 | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | zxcvb1 Polymarket | Italy -1.5 spread | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | RealTraderx Polymarket | Italy to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | lfg100k Polymarket | Italy to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | Flaznorp Polymarket | Italy to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | dapol Polymarket | Italy vs Türkiye O/U 1.5 | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | dapol Polymarket | Italy vs Türkiye O/U 1.5 | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | Flaznorp Polymarket | Italy to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | Ribalovvv Polymarket | Italy to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | lfg100k Polymarket | Italy to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | 0x0b5e…f21d Polymarket | Italy to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | 38791873984189 Polymarket | Türkiye to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | reppp Polymarket | Türkiye to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | Soupy-Perfume Polymarket | Italy to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | _test_i075_i078_3 Polymarket | Italy to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | ItsHosseinooo Polymarket | Italy to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | k-maniac Polymarket | Türkiye to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | Carefree-Significance Polymarket | Türkiye to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | NM-P Polymarket | Türkiye to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | 0xf2b2…2e80 Polymarket | Türkiye to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | 0xf2b2…2e80 Polymarket | Italy to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | luv4marco Kalshi | Italy wins | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | ishxn99 Kalshi | Italy wins | Pending |
| 2026-10-04 | Dear-Visa Polymarket | Italy to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-04 | Maoyidong Polymarket | Italy to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-04 | Zzzz87 Polymarket | Italy to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-04 | GC-P Polymarket | Italy to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-04 | Jarod21 Polymarket | Italy to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-04 | LuckyLoo Polymarket | Italy to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-04 | Murky-Fallingout Polymarket | Italy to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-04 | Impressionable-Compassionate Polymarket | Italy to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-04 | Dirty-Normalization Polymarket | Italy to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-04 | Safe-Litigation-Quiet Polymarket | Türkiye to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-04 | Safe-Litigation-Quiet Polymarket | Italy to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-04 | 0x863d…4df7 Polymarket | Türkiye to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-04 | bj2win Polymarket | Italy to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-04 | Elendil0 Polymarket | Italy to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-04 | Carefree-Significance Polymarket | Italy to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-04 | 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3 Polymarket | Italy to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-04 | hedgevaultmainnet1 Polymarket | Türkiye to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-04 | anon202 Polymarket | Italy to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-04 | NM-P Polymarket | Italy to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-04 | lfg100k Polymarket | Italy to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-04 | RealTraderx Polymarket | Italy to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-04 | nigiri99 Polymarket | Italy to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-04 | ewww1 Polymarket | Türkiye to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-04 | gpimente407 Polymarket | Italy to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-04 | Oddstorm Polymarket | draw | Pending |
| 2026-10-04 | deep.bird Kalshi | Italy wins | Pending |
| 2026-10-04 | Ribalovvv Polymarket | Italy to win | Pending |