Primera División (Uruguay) ·
Racing Club de Montevideo vs Penarol prediction for 5 Oct 2026, 06:30 SGT (Primera División (Uruguay)). Prediction-market win probability: Racing Club de Montevideo 23%, the draw 33%, Penarol 46% (Polymarket). Recent form, head-to-head and real positions of profitable pros on Polymarket/Kalshi.
Latest Polymarket chances: Racing Club de Montevideo 23% · Draw 33% · Penarol 46% (updated )
Penarol is the prediction-market favourite at 46% (Polymarket, as of 2026-10-04 11:20 UTC+8). In the last 30 days, market favourites priced at <50% won 43% of 1982 finished matches we tracked. This is data, not a guaranteed result.
As of 2026-10-04 11:20 UTC+8, Polymarket shows: Racing Club de Montevideo 23% · Draw 33% · Penarol 46%. These are the platform's displayed prices, not normalised, so they can add up to slightly more than 100%.
Racing Club de Montevideo, last 5: L D W L D. Penarol, last 5: D W W W W.
Sources: public prices and positions on Polymarket and Kalshi; results from public sports data. Data as of 2026-10-04 11:20 UTC+8. How we calculate: methodology
| 2026-09-26 | vs Progreso | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-09-21 | vs Liverpool Montevideo | 0-0 | D |
| 2026-09-12 | vs Boston River | 3-2 | W |
| 2026-09-06 | vs Cerro | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-08-23 | vs Danubio FC | 0-0 | D |
| 2026-10-01 | vs Montevideo City | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-09-27 | vs Boston River | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-09-20 | vs Cerro | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-09-14 | vs Albion FC | 3-1 | W |
| 2026-09-06 | vs Danubio FC | 4-0 | W |
| Date | Match | Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | Flaznorp Polymarket | Racing Club Montevideo vs CA Penarol Montevideo O/U 1.5 | Pending |
| 2026-10-03 | benjammin29 Kalshi | Both Teams To Score | Pending |
| 2026-10-02 | doador Polymarket | draw | Pending |
| 2026-10-02 | doador Polymarket | CA Penarol Montevideo to win | Pending |