Europa League ·
Lech Poznan vs Leverkusen prediction for 16 Oct 2026, 00:45 SGT (Europa League). Prediction-market win probability: Lech Poznan 18%, the draw 20%, Leverkusen 60% (Kalshi). Recent form, head-to-head and real positions of profitable pros on Polymarket/Kalshi.
Latest Kalshi chances: Lech Poznan 18% · Draw 20% · Leverkusen 60% (updated )
Leverkusen is the prediction-market favourite at 60% (Kalshi, as of 2026-10-08 14:14 UTC+8). In the last 30 days, market favourites priced at 60–75% won 58% of 1741 finished matches we tracked. This is data, not a guaranteed result.
As of 2026-10-08 14:14 UTC+8, Kalshi shows: Lech Poznan 18% · Draw 20% · Leverkusen 60%. These are the platform's displayed prices, not normalised, so they can add up to slightly more than 100%.
Lech Poznan, last 5: W L L W W. Leverkusen, last 5: W W D W L.
Sources: public prices and positions on Polymarket and Kalshi; results from public sports data. Data as of 2026-10-08 14:14 UTC+8. How we calculate: methodology
| 2026-09-21 | vs Radomiak Radom | 5:1 | W |
| 2026-09-18 | vs Crystal Palace FC | 0:4 | L |
| 2026-09-12 | vs Gornik Zabrze | 1:2 | L |
| 2026-09-06 | vs Czestochowa | 1:0 | W |
| 2026-09-04 | vs Jagiellonia | 2:1 | W |
| 2026-09-20 | vs Leipzig | 2:0 | W |
| 2026-09-17 | vs NK Celje | 2:0 | W |
| 2026-09-12 | vs FC Augsburg | 2:2 | D |
| 2026-09-05 | vs Union Berlin | 4:0 | W |
| 2026-08-29 | vs Elversberg | 2:3 | L |
| Date | Match | Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-06 | Flaznorp Polymarket | Bayer 04 Leverkusen to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | 38791873984189 Polymarket | Bayer 04 Leverkusen to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-05 | VeryLucky888 Polymarket | Bayer 04 Leverkusen to win | Pending |