Kalshi · Football
black.thunder is a World Cup pro on Kalshi: 36 picks, 66.7% win rate, $7K profit. Real on-chain positions, updated daily.
Of the 60 most recent predictions listed below ( to ), 60 have settled: 29 won, 31 lost, 48.3% accuracy.
| League | Records | Settled | Won | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FIFA World Cup | 46 | 46 | 20 | 43.5% |
| NFL | 6 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% |
| Premier League | 2 | 2 | 2 | — |
| Europa League | 2 | 2 | 2 | — |
| Champions League | 2 | 2 | 2 | — |
| La Liga | 1 | 1 | 0 | — |
black.thunder mainly predicts World Cup: 46 of the last 60 recorded predictions. Platform: Kalshi.
Across the settled orders we have collected: 66.7% hit rate over 36 orders, P&L $7K, ROI 46.1%. In World Cup, 20 of 46 recent settled predictions were correct.
Hit rate = correct settled predictions ÷ settled predictions; pending ones are not counted. P&L and ROI use the cost and settlement of each public position. Past results do not predict future ones.
Source: public positions on Kalshi. Data as of 2026-10-18 01:03 UTC+8. Method: methodology
| Date | Match | Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 | Real Betis Balompié (Real Betis) 2:5 FC Barcelona La Liga | Real Betis wins | Lost |
| 2026-10-17 | Newcastle United F.C. (Newcastle) 0:1 Aston Villa F.C. (Aston Villa FC) Premier League | Aston Villa wins | Won |
| 2026-10-17 | Den Haag 2:1 PSV Eindhoven (Eindhoven) Eredivisie | Den Haag wins | Won |
| 2026-10-17 | Everton F.C. (Everton FC) 0:2 Chelsea F.C. (Chelsea FC) Premier League | Chelsea wins | Won |
| 2026-10-16 | Denver Broncos 17:14 Seattle Seahawks NFL | Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 1+ touchdowns | Lost |
| 2026-10-16 | Denver Broncos 17:14 Seattle Seahawks NFL | Seattle wins | Lost |
| 2026-10-16 | Denver Broncos 17:14 Seattle Seahawks NFL | RJ Harvey: 2+ touchdowns | Lost |
| 2026-10-16 | Denver Broncos 17:14 Seattle Seahawks NFL | RJ Harvey: 1+ touchdowns | Won |
| 2026-10-16 | Denver Broncos 17:14 Seattle Seahawks NFL | SEA -6.5 | Lost |
| 2026-10-16 | Denver Broncos 17:14 Seattle Seahawks NFL | Denver wins | Won |
| 2026-10-15 | RC Celta de Vigo (Celta Vigo) 1:2 Juventus FC Europa League | Juventus wins | Won |
| 2026-10-15 | FC Red Bull Salzburg (Salzburg) 0:4 AC Milan Europa League | Milan wins | Won |
| 2026-10-14 | AS Roma 3:4 Real Madrid Champions League | Real Madrid wins | Won |
| 2026-10-14 | Manchester City F.C. (Manchester City FC) 2:4 Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) Champions League | PSG wins | Won |
| 2026-07-11 | Argentina men's national football team (Argentina) 1:1 Switzerland men's national football team (Switzerland) FIFA World Cup | Argentina vs Switzerland: To Advance | Lost |
| 2026-07-11 | Norway men's national association football team (Norway) 1:1 England men's national association football team (England) FIFA World Cup | Norway vs England: To Advance | Lost |
| 2026-07-07 | Switzerland men's national football team (Switzerland) 0:0 Colombia men's national football team (Colombia) FIFA World Cup | Switzerland vs Colombia: To Advance | Lost |
| 2026-07-04 | Argentina men's national football team (Argentina) 1:1 Cape Verde men's national football team (Cape Verde) FIFA World Cup | Argentina vs Cape Verde: To Advance | Lost |
| 2026-06-30 | Ivory Coast men's national football team (Ivory Coast) 1:2 Norway men's national association football team (Norway) FIFA World Cup | Ivory Coast vs Norway: To Advance | Won |
| 2026-06-30 | Ivory Coast men's national football team (Ivory Coast) 1:2 Norway men's national association football team (Norway) FIFA World Cup | Ivory Coast vs Norway Winner | Won |
| 2026-06-30 | Ivory Coast men's national football team (Ivory Coast) 1:2 Norway men's national association football team (Norway) FIFA World Cup | Martin Odegaard: 2+ goals | Lost |
| 2026-06-27 | Colombia men's national football team (Colombia) 0:0 Portugal men's national football team (Portugal) FIFA World Cup | Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals | Lost |
| 2026-06-27 | Croatia men's national football team (Croatia) 2:1 Ghana men's national football team (Ghana) FIFA World Cup | Croatia vs Ghana Winner | Won |
| 2026-06-27 | Panama men's national football team (Panama) 0:2 England men's national association football team (England) FIFA World Cup | Harry Kane: 3+ goals | Lost |
| 2026-06-27 | New Zealand men's national football team (New Zealand) 1:5 Belgium men's national football team (Belgium) FIFA World Cup | Team Over 0.5 | Won |
| 2026-06-27 | Egypt men's national football team (Egypt) 1:1 IR Iran FIFA World Cup | Egypt vs IR Iran Winner | Lost |
| 2026-06-27 | New Zealand men's national football team (New Zealand) 1:5 Belgium men's national football team (Belgium) FIFA World Cup | BEL -2.5 | Won |
| 2026-06-27 | New Zealand men's national football team (New Zealand) 1:5 Belgium men's national football team (Belgium) FIFA World Cup | New Zealand vs Belgium Winner | Won |
| 2026-06-27 | Egypt men's national football team (Egypt) 1:1 IR Iran FIFA World Cup | Egypt vs IR Iran Winner | Lost |
| 2026-06-27 | Uruguay men's national football team (Uruguay) 0:1 Spain men's national football team (Spain) FIFA World Cup | Uruguay vs Spain Winner | Won |
| 2026-06-26 | Uruguay men's national football team (Uruguay) 0:1 Spain men's national football team (Spain) FIFA World Cup | ESP -2.5 | Lost |
| 2026-06-26 | Norway men's national association football team (Norway) 1:4 France FIFA World Cup | FRA -2.5 | Won |
| 2026-06-26 | Norway men's national association football team (Norway) 1:4 France FIFA World Cup | Norway vs France Winner | Won |
| 2026-06-26 | Paraguay men's national football team (Paraguay) 0:0 Australia men's national soccer team (Australia) FIFA World Cup | Paraguay vs Australia Winner | Lost |
| 2026-06-25 | Japan men's national football team (Japan) 1:1 Sweden men's national football team (Sweden) FIFA World Cup | Japan vs Sweden Winner | Lost |
| 2026-06-25 | Japan men's national football team (Japan) 1:1 Sweden men's national football team (Sweden) FIFA World Cup | SWE -2.5 | Lost |
| 2026-06-25 | Japan men's national football team (Japan) 1:1 Sweden men's national football team (Sweden) FIFA World Cup | Japan vs Sweden Winner | Lost |
| 2026-06-25 | Tunisia men's national football team (Tunisia) 1:3 Netherlands FIFA World Cup | NED -1.5 | Won |
| 2026-06-25 | Ecuador men's national football team (Ecuador) 2:1 Germany FIFA World Cup | Ecuador vs Germany Winner | Won |
| 2026-06-25 | Ecuador men's national football team (Ecuador) 2:1 Germany FIFA World Cup | GER -2.5 | Lost |
| 2026-06-25 | Czechia men's national football team (Czechia) 0:3 Mexico men's national football team (Mexico) FIFA World Cup | MEX -1.5 | Won |
| 2026-06-24 | Morocco men's national football team (Morocco) 4:2 Haiti men's national football team (Haiti) FIFA World Cup | Morocco vs Haiti Winner | Won |
| 2026-06-24 | Switzerland men's national football team (Switzerland) 2:1 Canadian men's national soccer team (Canada) FIFA World Cup | Switzerland vs Canada Winner | Lost |
| 2026-06-24 | Colombia men's national football team (Colombia) 1:0 DR Congo men's national football team (Congo DR) FIFA World Cup | Colombia vs Congo DR Winner | Won |
| 2026-06-23 | Panama men's national football team (Panama) 0:1 Croatia men's national football team (Croatia) FIFA World Cup | Panama vs Croatia Winner | Lost |
| 2026-06-23 | Panama men's national football team (Panama) 0:1 Croatia men's national football team (Croatia) FIFA World Cup | CRO -1.5 | Lost |
| 2026-06-23 | Panama men's national football team (Panama) 0:1 Croatia men's national football team (Croatia) FIFA World Cup | Panama vs Croatia Winner | Won |
| 2026-06-23 | England men's national association football team (England) 0:0 Ghana men's national football team (Ghana) FIFA World Cup | England vs Ghana Winner | Lost |
| 2026-06-23 | Portugal men's national football team (Portugal) 5:0 Uzbekistan men's national football team (Uzbekistan) FIFA World Cup | Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals | Lost |
| 2026-06-23 | Jordan men's national football team (Jordan) 1:2 Algeria men's national football team (Algeria) FIFA World Cup | DZA -1.5 | Lost |
| 2026-06-23 | Norway men's national association football team (Norway) 3:2 Senegal men's national association football team (Senegal) FIFA World Cup | Norway vs Senegal Winner | Won |
| 2026-06-22 | Norway men's national association football team (Norway) 3:2 Senegal men's national association football team (Senegal) FIFA World Cup | Norway vs Senegal Winner | Lost |
| 2026-06-22 | France 3:0 Iraq men's national football team (Iraq) FIFA World Cup | FRA -2.5 | Won |
| 2026-06-22 | Argentina men's national football team (Argentina) 2:0 Austria men's national football team (Austria) FIFA World Cup | Argentina vs Austria Winner | Won |
| 2026-06-21 | Uruguay men's national football team (Uruguay) 2:2 Cape Verde men's national football team (Cape Verde) FIFA World Cup | Uruguay vs Cape Verde Winner | Lost |
| 2026-06-21 | Tunisia men's national football team (Tunisia) 0:4 Japan men's national football team (Japan) FIFA World Cup | JPN -1.5 | Won |
| 2026-06-21 | Ecuador men's national football team (Ecuador) 0:0 Curaçao men's national football team (Curaçao) FIFA World Cup | Ecuador vs Curacao Winner | Lost |
| 2026-06-20 | Germany 2:1 Ivory Coast men's national football team (Ivory Coast) FIFA World Cup | Germany vs Ivory Coast Winner | Won |
| 2026-06-20 | Turkiye 0:1 Paraguay men's national football team (Paraguay) FIFA World Cup | Turkiye vs Paraguay Winner | Lost |
| 2026-06-20 | Brazil men's national football team (Brazil) 3:0 Haiti men's national football team (Haiti) FIFA World Cup | BRA -3.5 | Lost |