UEFA Nations League ·
Azerbaijan vs Lithuania prediction for 4 Oct 2026, 21:00 SGT (UEFA Nations League): 11 profitable pros on Polymarket/Kalshi have taken positions, 50% backing Azerbaijan to win. Prediction-market win probability: Azerbaijan 41%, the draw 32%, Lithuania 29% (Polymarket). Recent form, head-to-head and every pro's pick.
Latest Polymarket chances: Azerbaijan 41% · Draw 32% · Lithuania 29% (updated )
Azerbaijan is the prediction-market favourite at 41% (Polymarket, as of 2026-10-04 11:19 UTC+8). Of 8 profitable pros with a win/draw position, 4 (50%) back Azerbaijan to win. In the last 30 days, market favourites priced at <50% won 43% of 1982 finished matches we tracked. This is data, not a guaranteed result.
As of 2026-10-04 11:19 UTC+8, Polymarket shows: Azerbaijan 41% · Draw 32% · Lithuania 29%. These are the platform's displayed prices, not normalised, so they can add up to slightly more than 100%.
11 profitable pros (listed on Tips, cumulative P&L above zero) hold positions on this match. Latest win/draw pick per pro: Azerbaijan 4 (50%) · Draw 4 (50%) · Lithuania 0 (0%).
Azerbaijan, last 5: D D W W L. Lithuania, last 5: W D W L L.
Sources: public prices and positions on Polymarket and Kalshi; results from public sports data. Data as of 2026-10-04 11:19 UTC+8. How we calculate: methodology
11 profitable pros have positions on this match. Latest win/draw pick per pro: Azerbaijan to win 4 (50%) · the draw 4 (50%) · Lithuania to win 0 (0%).
| 2026-10-01 | vs Liechtenstein | 0-0 | D |
| 2026-09-27 | vs Lithuania | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-09-23 | vs Tajikistan | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-06-10 | vs San Marino | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-06-06 | vs Malta | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-09-30 | vs Andorra | 3-0 | W |
| 2026-09-27 | vs Azerbaijan | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-09-25 | vs Liechtenstein | 2-0 | W |
| 2025-11-18 | vs Netherlands | 0-4 | L |
| 2025-10-13 | vs Poland | 0-2 | L |
| Date | Match | Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | Macunireal Polymarket | Azerbaijan to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-04 | Flaznorp Polymarket | draw | Pending |
| 2026-10-04 | Flaznorp Polymarket | Azerbaijan vs Lithuania O/U 7.5 | Pending |
| 2026-10-04 | Flaznorp Polymarket | Azerbaijan vs Lithuania O/U 2.5 | Pending |
| 2026-10-04 | Flaznorp Polymarket | both teams to score | Pending |
| 2026-10-04 | Flaznorp Polymarket | Azerbaijan vs Lithuania O/U 1.5 | Pending |
| 2026-10-04 | Flaznorp Polymarket | Azerbaijan vs Lithuania O/U 3.5 | Pending |
| 2026-10-04 | Flaznorp Polymarket | Azerbaijan vs Lithuania O/U 3.5 | Pending |
| 2026-10-04 | Flaznorp Polymarket | Azerbaijan vs Lithuania O/U 3.5 | Pending |
| 2026-10-04 | Flaznorp Polymarket | Azerbaijan vs Lithuania O/U 1.5 | Pending |
| 2026-10-04 | Flaznorp Polymarket | Azerbaijan vs Lithuania O/U 1.5 | Pending |
| 2026-10-04 | ps1993 Polymarket | Azerbaijan to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-04 | Flaznorp Polymarket | Azerbaijan vs Lithuania O/U 1.5 | Pending |
| 2026-10-04 | Flaznorp Polymarket | Azerbaijan to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-04 | Flaznorp Polymarket | Azerbaijan vs Lithuania O/U 1.5 | Pending |
| 2026-10-04 | Flaznorp Polymarket | Azerbaijan vs Lithuania O/U 1.5 | Pending |
| 2026-10-04 | dapol Polymarket | Azerbaijan vs Lithuania O/U 3.5 | Pending |
| 2026-10-04 | Flaznorp Polymarket | Azerbaijan vs Lithuania O/U 1.5 | Pending |
| 2026-10-04 | emacron Polymarket | Azerbaijan to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-04 | mooseborzoi Polymarket | Azerbaijan to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-04 | jaijiajaijai Polymarket | draw | Pending |
| 2026-10-04 | enthusiastic.emu4978 Kalshi | Azerbaijan wins | Pending |
| 2026-10-03 | bastet9 Polymarket | Azerbaijan to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-03 | Chubby-Emu Polymarket | draw | Pending |
| 2026-10-03 | Flaznorp Polymarket | Azerbaijan to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-03 | ps1993 Polymarket | Azerbaijan to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-03 | s2000.ap1 Kalshi | Under 3.5 | Pending |
| 2026-10-03 | mooseborzoi Polymarket | draw | Pending |
| 2026-10-03 | Delbar Polymarket | Azerbaijan to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-03 | Vicky1371 Kalshi | Lithuania wins | Pending |
| 2026-10-03 | benjammin29 Kalshi | Tie is the result | Pending |
| 2026-10-03 | sbsigner Polymarket | draw | Pending |
| 2026-10-03 | cosmicsteaks Polymarket | Azerbaijan to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-03 | nigiri99 Polymarket | draw | Pending |
| 2026-10-03 | pahan2001 Polymarket | Lithuania to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-03 | salib Polymarket | Lithuania to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-03 | doador Polymarket | draw | Pending |
| 2026-10-02 | Viacheslav92 Polymarket | Azerbaijan to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-02 | Viacheslav92 Polymarket | Azerbaijan to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-02 | Viacheslav92 Polymarket | Azerbaijan to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-02 | Viacheslav92 Polymarket | Azerbaijan to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-02 | Viacheslav92 Polymarket | Azerbaijan to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-02 | metaambrose Polymarket | Azerbaijan to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-02 | metaambrose Polymarket | draw | Pending |
| 2026-10-02 | doador Polymarket | Azerbaijan to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-02 | pjotrekkk Polymarket | draw | Pending |
| 2026-10-02 | retarb Polymarket | Azerbaijan to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-02 | retarb Polymarket | Azerbaijan to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-02 | Viacheslav92 Polymarket | Azerbaijan to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-02 | Viacheslav92 Polymarket | Azerbaijan to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-02 | Viacheslav92 Polymarket | Azerbaijan to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-02 | retarb Polymarket | Azerbaijan to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-02 | Viacheslav92 Polymarket | Azerbaijan to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-01 | Viacheslav92 Polymarket | Azerbaijan to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-01 | Viacheslav92 Polymarket | Azerbaijan to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-01 | cosmicsteaks Polymarket | Azerbaijan to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-01 | cosmicsteaks Polymarket | Azerbaijan to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-01 | Viacheslav92 Polymarket | Azerbaijan to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-01 | Viacheslav92 Polymarket | Azerbaijan to win | Pending |
| 2026-10-01 | Welcome2026 Polymarket | Azerbaijan to win | Pending |