Liga MX ·
Tigres de la UANL vs Toluca prediction for 10 Oct 2026, 11:00 SGT (Liga MX). Prediction-market win probability: Tigres de la UANL 35%, the draw 27%, Toluca 41% (Kalshi). Recent form, head-to-head and real positions of profitable pros on Polymarket/Kalshi.
Latest Kalshi chances: Tigres de la UANL 35% · Draw 27% · Toluca 41% (updated )
Toluca is the prediction-market favourite at 41% (Kalshi, as of 2026-10-03 09:01 UTC+8). In the last 30 days, market favourites priced at <50% won 43% of 1909 finished matches we tracked. This is data, not a guaranteed result.
As of 2026-10-03 09:01 UTC+8, Kalshi shows: Tigres de la UANL 35% · Draw 27% · Toluca 41%. These are the platform's displayed prices, not normalised, so they can add up to slightly more than 100%.
Tigres de la UANL, last 5: W L D D D. Toluca, last 5: D L W W W.
Sources: public prices and positions on Polymarket and Kalshi; results from public sports data. Data as of 2026-10-03 09:01 UTC+8. How we calculate: methodology
| 2026-09-27 | vs Club Puebla | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-09-19 | vs Juarez | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-09-13 | vs CF Monterrey | 0-0 | D |
| 2026-09-06 | vs Club Necaxa | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-08-30 | vs Club Santos Laguna | 0-0 | D |
| 2026-09-27 | vs CF Cruz Azul | 3-3 | D |
| 2026-09-21 | vs Club Santos Laguna | 2-3 | L |
| 2026-09-16 | vs Club Puebla | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-09-13 | vs Atlas FC | 5-2 | W |
| 2026-09-06 | vs CF Monterrey | 5-1 | W |
| Date | Match | Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | Querulous-Metabolite Polymarket | Deportivo Toluca FC to win | Pending |
| 2026-09-30 | Gaditima Polymarket | Tigres de la UANL to win | Pending |