Questions about prediction-market pros, answered with data
Direct answers from 798,458 public Polymarket, Kalshi and SX Bet accounts tracked by SG Tips. Every number is recomputed hourly; last update 2026-10-14 11:47 UTC.
Questions about prediction-market pros, answered with data
Who are the best Polymarket sports traders?
As of 2026-10-14 11:47 UTC, the most profitable Polymarket sports trader tracked by SG Tips is beachboy4, with $12,212,346 in sports P&L over 44 matches and a 75.0% hit rate. SG Tips analyses 609,359 Polymarket accounts; 5,527 of them (0.9%) are listed as profitable pros.
Who are the best Kalshi sports traders?
As of 2026-10-14 11:47 UTC, the most profitable Kalshi sports trader tracked by SG Tips is reservafps, with $296,312 in sports P&L over 434 matches and a 76.7% hit rate. SG Tips analyses 185,640 Kalshi accounts; 6,370 of them (3.4%) are listed as profitable pros.
Does copying pro prediction-market traders work?
Not reliably. As of 2026-10-14 11:47 UTC, only 1.5% of the 798,458 prediction-market accounts SG Tips analyses are listed as profitable pros. Among the 2,802 pros ranked on the last 30 days, the median hit rate was 52.7% (middle half: 43.9%–62.7%), and 74% of them were below the 62.2% at which the Polymarket favourite simply won.
Polymarket vs Kalshi for sports: which is more accurate?
They are almost tied. On the 3,566 sports matches priced by both platforms in the last 30 days (to 2026-10-14 11:47 UTC), the Polymarket favourite won 64.0% and the Kalshi favourite won 64.3%; both picked the same favourite in 96.8% of matches. Brier score (lower is better): Polymarket 0.462, Kalshi 0.461.
How accurate is Polymarket for sports?
In the last 30 days (to 2026-10-14 11:47 UTC), the Polymarket favourite won 62.2% of 5,145 finished sports matches, using the last price within 24 hours before kick-off. Favourites priced 75–90% won 84.1% (average price 81.4%), and those priced 90% or more won 95.1% (average price 94.3%).
What percent of Polymarket traders are profitable?
Very few. As of 2026-10-14 11:47 UTC, SG Tips analyses the sports records of 609,359 Polymarket accounts and lists 5,527 of them (0.91%) as profitable pros. On Kalshi it is 6,370 of 185,640 (3.43%), and on SX Bet 238 of 3,459 (6.88%).