Does copying pro prediction-market traders work?
Not reliably. As of 2026-10-22 07:47 UTC, only 1.2% of the 803,702 prediction-market accounts SG Tips analyses are listed as profitable pros. Among the 2,466 pros ranked on the last 30 days, the median hit rate was 56.1% (middle half: 47.1%–66.7%), and 66% of them were below the 62.3% at which the Polymarket favourite simply won.
How 30-day hit rates are spread among ranked pros
| 30-day hit rate | Pros | Share |
|---|---|---|
| < 50% | 770 | 31.2% |
| 50-55% | 384 | 15.6% |
| 55-60% | 336 | 13.6% |
| 60-70% | 509 | 20.6% |
| ≥ 70% | 467 | 18.9% |
What the data says to check before following anyone
- Sample size: the 30-day table is full of 100% hit rates on a few dozen picks. Check the number of settled picks and the full record.
- Price: the Polymarket favourite already won 62.3% of finished matches in the last 30 days, so a high hit rate can come from backing short-priced favourites.
- Where the record comes from: P&L is concentrated in specific sports and competitions; a pro strong in one league is not automatically strong in another.
- Timing: prices move after a pro trades, so a later copy gets a different price than the original position.
How this is calculated
- Profitable pros = accounts in profit that pass SG Tips’s own multi-factor screening (test and hidden accounts excluded).
- Hit rate = correct ÷ settled predictions in the last 30 days, counted for listed pros with enough settled picks.
- Favourite rate = how often the outcome with the highest Polymarket price (last price within 24 h before kick-off) won.
Public trades and positions on Polymarket, Kalshi and SX Bet, collected continuously by SG Tips. This page is recomputed every hour (last update 2026-10-22 07:47 UTC). SG Tips only displays data: it takes no wagers, offers no trading and does not link to any trading platform.
Frequently asked questions
- Does SG Tips offer copy trading?
- No. SG Tips only displays data: it takes no wagers, offers no trading and does not link to trading platforms.
- Where can I see a pro’s full record?
- Every listed pro has a page with the full prediction record, hit rate and P&L; the 30-day ranking is at /top-pros.
- Does a high past hit rate predict future results?
- Past performance does not guarantee future results. Use the record as reference data, together with sample size and price.
Related questions
Who are the best Polymarket sports traders?
Top 20 Polymarket sports traders by real P&L, plus the most accurate in the last 30 days. 4,754 profitable pros out of 613,411 Polymarket accounts. Updated hourly.
Who are the best Kalshi sports traders?
Top 20 Kalshi sports traders by real P&L, plus the most accurate in the last 30 days. 5,018 profitable pros out of 186,707 Kalshi accounts. Updated hourly.
Polymarket vs Kalshi for sports: which is more accurate?
Same matches, both platforms: Polymarket favourite won 64.2%, Kalshi favourite 64.3% over 4,236 sports matches in the last 30 days. Brier scores and per-sport results.
How accurate is Polymarket for sports?
Last 30 days: the Polymarket favourite won 62.3% of 5,860 finished sports matches. Calibration by price band and by sport, from real prices. Updated hourly.
What percent of Polymarket traders are profitable?
4,754 of 613,411 Polymarket accounts (0.78%) are listed as profitable sports pros; Kalshi 2.69%, SX Bet 5.25%. Real data from public trades, updated hourly.