What percent of Polymarket traders are profitable?
Very few. As of 2026-10-23 01:47 UTC, SG Tips analyses the sports records of 615,411 Polymarket accounts and lists 4,740 of them (0.77%) as profitable pros. On Kalshi it is 5,011 of 186,708 (2.68%), and on SX Bet 190 of 3,592 (5.29%).
Profitable pros by platform
| Platform | Accounts analysed | Listed profitable pros |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 615,411 | 4,740 0.77% |
| Kalshi | 186,708 | 5,011 2.68% |
| SX Bet | 3,592 | 190 5.29% |
| ∑ | 805,711 | 9,941 1.23% |
How this is calculated
- Accounts analysed = public accounts on each platform whose sports records SG Tips scores.
- Listed profitable pros = accounts in profit on their sports record that pass SG Tips’s own multi-factor screening; test and hidden accounts are excluded.
Public trades and positions on Polymarket, Kalshi and SX Bet, collected continuously by SG Tips. This page is recomputed every hour (last update 2026-10-23 01:47 UTC). SG Tips only displays data: it takes no wagers, offers no trading and does not link to any trading platform.
Frequently asked questions
- What counts as a profitable pro?
- An account in profit on its sports record that also passes SG Tips’s own multi-factor screening. Test and hidden accounts are excluded.
- Does this include politics or crypto markets?
- No. SG Tips scores sports records only (soccer, basketball, baseball, American football, esports and more).
- Who are the most profitable ones?
- See the top 20 Polymarket and Kalshi sports traders by real P&L, updated hourly.
Related questions
Who are the best Polymarket sports traders?
Top 20 Polymarket sports traders by real P&L, plus the most accurate in the last 30 days. 4,740 profitable pros out of 615,411 Polymarket accounts. Updated hourly.
Who are the best Kalshi sports traders?
Top 20 Kalshi sports traders by real P&L, plus the most accurate in the last 30 days. 5,011 profitable pros out of 186,708 Kalshi accounts. Updated hourly.
Does copying pro prediction-market traders work?
Only 1.2% of 805,711 prediction-market accounts are listed as profitable pros, and 30-day hit rates of ranked pros range widely. Real data, updated hourly.
Polymarket vs Kalshi for sports: which is more accurate?
Same matches, both platforms: Polymarket favourite won 64.3%, Kalshi favourite 64.4% over 4,302 sports matches in the last 30 days. Brier scores and per-sport results.
How accurate is Polymarket for sports?
Last 30 days: the Polymarket favourite won 62.5% of 5,927 finished sports matches. Calibration by price band and by sport, from real prices. Updated hourly.