How accurate is Polymarket for sports?
In the last 30 days (to 2026-10-23 18:47 UTC), the Polymarket favourite won 62.4% of 5,851 finished sports matches, using the last price within 24 hours before kick-off. Favourites priced 75–90% won 84.5% (average price 81.4%), and those priced 90% or more won 93.4% (average price 93.9%).
Price vs result (calibration)
| Favourite price | Matches | Avg price | Favourite won |
|---|---|---|---|
| < 50% | 1,338 | 42.3% | 43.9% |
| 50–60% | 1,650 | 54.9% | 55.1% |
| 60–75% | 1,766 | 66.8% | 68.3% |
| 75–90% | 870 | 81.4% | 84.5% |
| ≥ 90% | 227 | 93.9% | 93.4% |
By sport
| Sport | Matches | Favourite won |
|---|---|---|
| Esports | 2,100 | 71.3% |
| Basketball | 745 | 65.5% |
| Baseball | 204 | 60.3% |
| American football | 70 | 58.6% |
| Soccer | 2,732 | 54.9% |
How this is calculated
- For every finished match with a Polymarket price, we take the last price within 24 hours before kick-off; the favourite is the outcome with the highest price.
- Soccer needs a draw price; level prices and voided games are excluded.
- If prices are well calibrated, favourites priced around 80% should win about 80% of the time; the table compares the two.
Public trades and positions on Polymarket, Kalshi and SX Bet, collected continuously by SG Tips. This page is recomputed every hour (last update 2026-10-23 18:47 UTC). SG Tips only displays data: it takes no wagers, offers no trading and does not link to any trading platform.
Frequently asked questions
- Is Polymarket more accurate than Kalshi for sports?
- On the same matches they are close: see the same-match comparison (Polymarket 64.3%, Kalshi 64.4% in the last 30 days).
- Where do these prices come from?
- They are public Polymarket prices recorded by SG Tips before each match; nothing is estimated.
- Does a 70% price mean the favourite will win?
- No. A 70% price means the favourite is expected to lose about 3 times in 10; the calibration table shows how that played out.
Related questions
Who are the best Polymarket sports traders?
Top 20 Polymarket sports traders by real P&L, plus the most accurate in the last 30 days. 4,740 profitable pros out of 615,411 Polymarket accounts. Updated hourly.
Who are the best Kalshi sports traders?
Top 20 Kalshi sports traders by real P&L, plus the most accurate in the last 30 days. 5,011 profitable pros out of 186,708 Kalshi accounts. Updated hourly.
Does copying pro prediction-market traders work?
Only 1.2% of 805,711 prediction-market accounts are listed as profitable pros, and 30-day hit rates of ranked pros range widely. Real data, updated hourly.
Polymarket vs Kalshi for sports: which is more accurate?
Same matches, both platforms: Polymarket favourite won 64.3%, Kalshi favourite 64.4% over 4,239 sports matches in the last 30 days. Brier scores and per-sport results.
What percent of Polymarket traders are profitable?
4,740 of 615,411 Polymarket accounts (0.77%) are listed as profitable sports pros; Kalshi 2.68%, SX Bet 5.29%. Real data from public trades, updated hourly.