Published 2026-10-02
Week 40, 2026 Only 1.5% of traders make the cut
Out of 791,417 public prediction-market accounts, 11,733 pass our profitability screens. The numbers behind the long-term winners.
Only 1.5% of traders make the cut
Accounts analysed
791,417
Profitable pros listed
11,733
1.5%
Combined P&L of those pros
$127.7M
Pro predictions tracked
3,303,079
In the last 30 days: 723,713
Matches covered
82,123
Polymarket
603,716
By platform
Kalshi
184,414
By platform
SX
3,287
By platform
Why so few?
- Pros are listed only after passing Tips’ own multi-factor screening.
- Even the market favourite wins only 54.8% of matches (last 30 days), so beating the market consistently is rare.
- Past performance does not indicate future results; the data is for reference only.
How to cite
You are welcome to quote any figure on this page. Please credit "SG Tips" and link to: https://sg.tips/reports/profitable-traders/2026-w40 · CC BY 4.0
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Profitable pros vs. the market
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Most accurate pros by competition
Top 10 profitable pros per competition by hit rate over the last 30 days.
How often the market favourite wins
Hit rate of the prediction-market favourite by probability band and by sport, last 7 and 30 days.
All issues
- Week 40, 2026