Published 2026-10-02
Week 40, 2026 How often the market favourite wins
Hit rate of the prediction-market favourite by probability band and by sport, last 7 and 30 days.
How often the market favourite wins
Over the last 30 days the market favourite won 54.8% of 5,375 finished matches; over the last 7 days, 58.6% of 1,046.
30d
54.8%
2,944 / 5,375
7d
58.6%
613 / 1,046
Favourite’s chance
2026-09-02 – 2026-10-02
30d
| Favourite’s chance | Matches | Favourite won | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| <50% | 1,945 | 842 | 43.3% |
| 50-60% | 1,340 | 725 | 54.1% |
| 60-75% | 1,235 | 762 | 61.7% |
| ≥75% | 855 | 615 | 71.9% |
Sport
2026-09-02 – 2026-10-02
30d
| Sport | Matches | Favourite won | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Football | 3,919 | 2,104 | 53.7% |
| Esports | 696 | 323 | 46.4% |
| Basketball | 396 | 271 | 68.4% |
| Baseball | 283 | 188 | 66.4% |
| American football | 81 | 58 | 71.6% |
Sport
2026-09-25 – 2026-10-02
7d
| Sport | Matches | Favourite won | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Football | 486 | 278 | 57.2% |
| Esports | 251 | 127 | 50.6% |
| Basketball | 213 | 145 | 68.1% |
| Baseball | 78 | 53 | 67.9% |
| American football | 18 | 10 | 55.6% |
Favourite = the side with the highest prediction-market price within 24 hours before kick-off.
How to cite
You are welcome to quote any figure on this page. Please credit "SG Tips" and link to: https://sg.tips/reports/favourite-hit-rate/2026-w40 · CC BY 4.0
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- Week 40, 2026