Published 2026-10-05
Week 41, 2026 How often the market favourite wins
Hit rate of the prediction-market favourite by probability band and by sport, last 7 and 30 days.
How often the market favourite wins
Over the last 30 days the market favourite won 53.9% of 6,631 finished matches; over the last 7 days, 57.6% of 1,374.
30d
53.9%
3,571 / 6,631
7d
57.6%
791 / 1,374
Favourite’s chance
2026-09-05 – 2026-10-05
30d
| Favourite’s chance | Matches | Favourite won | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| <50% | 1,983 | 854 | 43.1% |
| 50-60% | 1,707 | 907 | 53.1% |
| 60-75% | 1,727 | 1,015 | 58.8% |
| ≥75% | 1,214 | 795 | 65.5% |
Sport
2026-09-05 – 2026-10-05
30d
| Sport | Matches | Favourite won | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Football | 4,006 | 2,140 | 53.4% |
| Esports | 1,679 | 800 | 47.6% |
| Basketball | 555 | 376 | 67.7% |
| Baseball | 305 | 197 | 64.6% |
| American football | 86 | 58 | 67.4% |
Sport
2026-09-28 – 2026-10-05
7d
| Sport | Matches | Favourite won | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Esports | 533 | 288 | 54.0% |
| Football | 527 | 298 | 56.5% |
| Basketball | 238 | 158 | 66.4% |
| Baseball | 57 | 36 | 63.2% |
| American football | 19 | 11 | 57.9% |
Favourite = the side with the highest prediction-market price within 24 hours before kick-off.
How to cite
You are welcome to quote any figure on this page. Please credit "SG Tips" and link to: https://sg.tips/reports/favourite-hit-rate/2026-w41 · CC BY 4.0
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All issues
- Week 43, 2026
- Week 42, 2026
- Week 41, 2026
- Week 40, 2026