Published 2026-10-12
Week 42, 2026 How often the market favourite wins
Hit rate of the prediction-market favourite by probability band and by sport, last 7 and 30 days.
How often the market favourite wins
Over the last 30 days the market favourite won 54.6% of 7,067 finished matches; over the last 7 days, 57.0% of 1,738.
30d
54.6%
3,861 / 7,067
7d
57.0%
991 / 1,738
Favourite’s chance
2026-09-11 – 2026-10-11
30d
| Favourite’s chance | Matches | Favourite won | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| <50% | 1,809 | 765 | 42.3% |
| 50-60% | 1,797 | 932 | 51.9% |
| 60-75% | 1,993 | 1,182 | 59.3% |
| ≥75% | 1,468 | 982 | 66.9% |
Sport
2026-09-11 – 2026-10-11
30d
| Sport | Matches | Favourite won | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Football | 3,758 | 2,004 | 53.3% |
| Esports | 2,109 | 1,065 | 50.5% |
| Basketball | 815 | 547 | 67.1% |
| Baseball | 270 | 169 | 62.6% |
| American football | 115 | 76 | 66.1% |
Sport
2026-10-04 – 2026-10-11
7d
| Sport | Matches | Favourite won | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Football | 877 | 470 | 53.6% |
| Esports | 518 | 293 | 56.6% |
| Basketball | 285 | 190 | 66.7% |
| Baseball | 42 | 27 | 64.3% |
| American football | 16 | 11 | 68.8% |
Favourite = the side with the highest prediction-market price within 24 hours before kick-off.
How to cite
You are welcome to quote any figure on this page. Please credit "SG Tips" and link to: https://sg.tips/reports/favourite-hit-rate/2026-w42 · CC BY 4.0
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All issues
- Week 43, 2026
- Week 42, 2026
- Week 41, 2026
- Week 40, 2026