Published 2026-10-19
Week 43, 2026 How often the market favourite wins
Hit rate of the prediction-market favourite by probability band and by sport, last 7 and 30 days.
How often the market favourite wins
Over the last 30 days the market favourite won 61.9% of 7,746 finished matches; over the last 7 days, 60.8% of 1,976.
30d
61.9%
4,796 / 7,746
7d
60.8%
1,201 / 1,976
Favourite’s chance
2026-09-18 – 2026-10-18
30d
| Favourite’s chance | Matches | Favourite won | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| <50% | 1,770 | 773 | 43.7% |
| 50-60% | 1,953 | 1,051 | 53.8% |
| 60-75% | 2,339 | 1,555 | 66.5% |
| ≥75% | 1,684 | 1,417 | 84.1% |
Sport
2026-09-18 – 2026-10-18
30d
| Sport | Matches | Favourite won | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Football | 3,849 | 2,092 | 54.4% |
| Esports | 2,371 | 1,707 | 72.0% |
| Basketball | 1,144 | 761 | 66.5% |
| Baseball | 266 | 164 | 61.7% |
| American football | 116 | 72 | 62.1% |
Sport
2026-10-11 – 2026-10-18
7d
| Sport | Matches | Favourite won | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Football | 1,131 | 619 | 54.7% |
| Esports | 479 | 339 | 70.8% |
| Basketball | 326 | 220 | 67.5% |
| Baseball | 22 | 12 | 54.5% |
| American football | 18 | 11 | 61.1% |
Favourite = the side with the highest prediction-market price within 24 hours before kick-off.
How to cite
You are welcome to quote any figure on this page. Please credit "SG Tips" and link to: https://sg.tips/reports/favourite-hit-rate/2026-w43 · CC BY 4.0
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All issues
- Week 43, 2026
- Week 42, 2026
- Week 41, 2026
- Week 40, 2026