Published 2026-11-09
Week 46, 2026 How often the market favourite wins
Hit rate of the prediction-market favourite by probability band and by sport, last 7 and 30 days.
How often the market favourite wins
Over the last 30 days the market favourite won 62.1% of 9,469 finished matches; over the last 7 days, 68.0% of 2,494.
30d
62.1%
5,880 / 9,469
7d
68.0%
1,697 / 2,494
Favourite’s chance
2026-10-09 – 2026-11-08
30d
| Favourite’s chance | Matches | Favourite won | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| <50% | 2,254 | 987 | 43.8% |
| 50-60% | 2,293 | 1,176 | 51.3% |
| 60-75% | 2,653 | 1,758 | 66.3% |
| ≥75% | 2,269 | 1,959 | 86.3% |
Sport
2026-10-09 – 2026-11-08
30d
| Sport | Matches | Favourite won | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Football | 4,990 | 2,717 | 54.4% |
| Basketball | 2,273 | 1,666 | 73.3% |
| Esports | 2,087 | 1,416 | 67.8% |
| American football | 67 | 49 | 73.1% |
| Baseball | 52 | 32 | 61.5% |
Sport
2026-11-01 – 2026-11-08
7d
| Sport | Matches | Favourite won | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Football | 1,027 | 591 | 57.5% |
| Basketball | 994 | 791 | 79.6% |
| Esports | 454 | 302 | 66.5% |
| American football | 14 | 11 | 78.6% |
| Baseball | 5 | 2 | 40.0% |
Favourite = the side with the highest prediction-market price within 24 hours before kick-off.
How to cite
You are welcome to quote any figure on this page. Please credit "SG Tips" and link to: https://sg.tips/reports/favourite-hit-rate/2026-w46 · CC BY 4.0
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